Weathering the Storm

We get the extra day but my best work comes in the darkness of night. Sleep deprivation suits me well.

I spent an entire day of glory avoiding baseball (unlike Kobe), seeking college football (with a few distractions via the Wii, the kids, and the better half), and thinking. This week’s Monday night throwdown has my mind as bent as any I have pondered this season… so I tried to divert by putting attention on the kids on and off the gridiron (also on and off my fantasy squad).

With the full day between real time and game time we could wait and track the headlines that may come just prior to kickoff, but I feel we are all but settled – at least from this side of the Rockies – and thus we can dive right in with the weekly pregame rituals.

Let’s start by talking about me, and we’ll grab some tunes for the drive.

(BTW… you are listening to local flavor. These boys hail from the Mile High City and represent, in my humble opinion, the best thing to find influence from the hills since the Flobots.)

Some amazing college games today… your focus may have been pulled by games you didn’t expect to rise to the occasion, and that’s always a good sign on Saturday. I checked in during the Red River Shootout (I’m sticking with that name, like Ivan Maisel, and I don’t care if it is not politically correct… besides, after Sam Bradford went down I was without hope and tracking for shots of Colt McCoy’s girlfriend) via a modest and self-promoting post at the Buffalo Wild Wings blog. My fantasy team on that stage has suffered three straight losses and I worry the Giants will put the Saints (home for two of my most valuable commodities, Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas) in a bad way for a potential four-game streak of angst.

However, the Kodiaks of the CTGFFL are ON FIRE. We moved to 8-3 (tied for the best record in the 16-team league) last week and our boys were on the prowl again today, including…

… the man that has truly put the squad on top in recent weeks, Mr. Freddie Barnes. Bowling Green may not be known as a football haven but Barnes is a freak of nature. Last week he hit Kent State with 22 receptions – 22 RECEPTIONS – for 278 yards (not a typo) and three scores. He added three more scores today, taking 10 catches for 160 against Ball State. In five of the seven games this season Barnes has double-digit receptions. It defies logic.

… my man Toby Gerhart, the massive running back doing damage for Jim Harbaugh at Stanford. Here’s the deal. Taylor Mays, safety at USC, is the best player in the conference. Rushers Jahvid Best from Cal and Gerhart share the #2 spot, but very few realize it. Through seven games this season he has 746 rushing yards with 10 touchdowns, averaging 5.6 per carry thus far. His worst game: 17 carries for 82 yards at Wake Forest. That was his WORST game… I love this kid.

Add Noel Devine leading the way for West Virginia – hitting Marshall for 103 yards and two touchdowns on the day – and rookie wideout Eric Page adding 10 grabs for 127 in Toledo’s loss to Northern Illinois and that’s a pretty good day. Kellen Moore put a humble 187 yards in the passing column on Wednesday night to round it up but his three touchdowns should seal the deal.

Go Kodiaks (let’s hope the NFL squad can make good… I’m not nearly as deep on that side of the field.)

Onward and upward with the links and headlines of the last week (and another tune to set the emotion for the journey).

Let’s start with the national scene before we turn our focus local.

- Why it is taking Philly so damn long to figure out Jeremy Maclin needs more snaps is beyond me.

- Here’s a fantastic discussion between Dan Patrick and Rich Eisen about any and everything NFL related coming into Week 6.

- You might want to make this a regular visit… the Weekly Notes from Matt Bowen at the National Football Post.

- My weekly column from the mothership… 5 Questions Owners Aren’t Asking.

- The world was quick to jump on Rush but Darren Rovell with CNBC wonders why some aren’t pointing that same spotlight at Miami.

- Artie Lang’s NFL Picks of the Week from The Big Lead… and don’t laugh. He’s doing well. In the interest if full coverage, you can have Cousin Sal’s picks from the Kimmel Show as well.

- There is no real value in this video unless you enjoy drunken attempts to be pioneers in sports. This is my good friend Todd and some of the boys playing polish horseshoes in the woods (I introduced Todd to this game… no clue why it’s polish, no clue why Todd has made it an obsession). He figured I wouldn’t find a way to get it on the blog, and he was wrong.

- The Bears traded for Gaines Adams and some (like this Bears fan) are wondering what message is sent by making the move.

- Rumors continue to swirl suggesting Kansas City is trying to rid themselves of their best receiver.

- The Shutdown Corner reminds us why the Packers and Aaron Rodgers are likely to turn things around.

- The Bills want to shop TO? We better ask Jay Cutler what he thinks.

- Another Stabe favorite, Mark Hooper, recently came through with an outstanding post at IDPZone.com discussing the linebackers that have more than a few of us frustrated this season.

- Last but not least (on a note of personal reflection), the boys at Football Outsiders believe your fantasy crew will be best without Drew Brees this week. This is a problem for me. I have Brees backed by Joe Flacco in almost every league I have in my pocket, and I love both passers. Flacco is playing at a level where this could be done and justified… but sitting Drew Brees? Really? It makes me feel like Marty Schottenheimer and I just can’t have it. I love the Outsiders, but I’ll roll with the Big Easy in that game. I honestly believe they are better than the Giants, and you can hold me to it.

And then we circle the wagons to corral the Broncos.

- Our good friends at the Colorado Sports Desk have been giving the local scene (and The Stable, which is more than appreciated) a ton of love. Jeremy is checking in with the latest art from local artist-made-good Drew Litton as well as thoughts and commentary on all of the local Denver teams.

- The boys at the Mile High Report raided the kitchen at Football Outsiders to find insightful stat analysis on the improved Denver defense… and as you might suspect (you have been watching the games, right?), they are playing at an amazing level.

- The crew at Predominantly Orange offered up their choice for the Clip of the Week, honoring the AFC Offensive Player of the Week.

- Our friend Kyle at BroncoTalk.net found the folks in San Diego talking about the game with cameras running, and they seem to think the Bolts not only have an edge… but that they will destroy.

- Hit Ron Jaworski’s new site and make sure you hit the blog… he opens his weekly Jaws Bites offering with a TON of great notes about the Broncos, their interaction with New England, and what it might mean for their plans against San Diego.

- Shawne Merriman insists the lack of defensive prowess from the Bolts thus far is soon to be a distant memory.

- Jim Rome checked in with Quentin Jammer to discuss this week’s game.

- Sounds like Correll Buckhalter is set to return and contribute.

- It will be nice to get to Monday night so the Denver faithful can take their minds off the other headlines from our area.

- Antonio Gates is surprised, like many, to see the Broncos playing so well on defense.

- ESPN’s Bill Williamson believes – like us – the work put forth by Josh is the key to the Broncos success thus far, not to mention their potential for the future.

- Stable supporters Mike and Jeff sent me this to share with fello Denver fans, and they are right. Neck beards DO rule!

- The Associated Press has decided to jump on the bandwagon.

- The folks in Fort Collins are enjoying what they see from Vonnie Holliday.

- Mike Klis from the Denver Post thinks the defensive line isn’t getting proper respect. He also stopped in this week to give Orton his due.

- The dudes from the Bleacher Report are ready to throw praise at Brandon Marshall.

- Owner Pat Bowlen is ready to praise ‘em all.

- And since we are here… can we finally agree the trade is working out for both sides? No one seems to realize this is a possible outcome in these situations… but it is.

- Jeff Legwold from the Post… he thinks like us.

And that brings us to the plate. We’ve dedicated large portions of our free and not-so-free time to pondering the matchup ahead, and while last week’s game against New England may have been considered the first true and viable test for his Denver Bronco squad, we might suggest it was actually the perfect preparation for the week ahead.

Three Bullets for the Glass-is-Half-Empty Crowd

1) Philip Rivers runs his mouth, and he backs it up.

He may be sitting outside of the top 10 in terms of quarterback rating but it is not for a lack of effort, ability, or desire. His receivers aren’t as thick as hoped (though Colorado’s own Vincent Jackson is starting to realize his potential) and the loss of his favorite backfield receiver has been cause for concern as well. Still, the kid can wing it.

He’s hitting at 8.30 yards per attempt, one of the better marks in the league, and he’s extremely accurate down the field. If you give up big plays Philip Rivers can take advantage of that opportunity… assuming his receivers can make good and haul in the ball.

Nearly every bullet point that follows below hits on Rivers in some fashion, and that says it all. He’s the leader of this team and he is the man that will pull them to victory if the Bolts are capable of doing so.

2) The Bolts know how to create turnovers.

The numbers show struggles in the defensive backfield for the city named after a whale’s vagina – touting just four interceptions on the season – but in turning to the give/take numbers you find the Bolts are standing at +2.

They create fumbles… and while they may not haul ‘em all in, the work we’ve seen from the Broncos thus far suggests it should be a point of concern. Knowshon has experienced some troubles in protecting the football and the history of Buckhalter suggests it could be an issue.

And as Jaws noted in his blog, the Broncos struggled on the interior last week as Vince Wilfork found success against the run and pass. He was able to leverage his position to create havoc in the middle of the line and you can bet the Chargers will be trying the same.

Of course, they don’t own Vince Wilfork.

That’s not a huge window of hope for the league’s 26th-ranked defense, but it is one category they could use to put the Broncos in a bad way.

(Remember… the glass is only HALF empty. In truth, it may be less than half.)

3) Darren Sproles may be the best back the Broncos have faced thus far.

Run through the list of top rushers according to yards on the ground and you’ll find 58 names listed before you read “Sproles,” and as such it seems a reach to suggest he is the best back Denver has faced.

Let’s review, in order: Cedric Benson, Jamal Lewis/Jerome Harrison, Darren McFadden/Michael Bush, Marion Barber/Tashard Choice, Laurence Maroney/Sammy Morris. This is the list of rushers the Broncos have battled to date.

Benson… he may be a stud. He may be the only name that stands above Sproles (in terms of production and potential) on that list. The Broncos held him to a respectable 76 yards on 21 carries, but he put in work.

The rest of the list is mediocre at best with one exception. Dallas owns some talented rushers but they failed to put ‘em to use. Barber was dinged and saw just 11 carries on the day while Choice was the weapon of choice for Dallas as they battled to return in the second half, getting 14 carries. Like Benson he put in work, but his skills versus those offered by Sproles are, at the very least, up for debate.

Sproles is, without question, the speediest ball carrier our crew has witnessed since this season started. He he gets to the second level – or if he gets his work in with short-range receptions (he has great hands) – he could be as damaging as any player on the field for San Diego this week.

Three Bullets for the Glass-is-Half-Full Crowd

1) Run, Run, Pass… repeat.

This, my friends, is not rocket science.

The Chargers are horrific on defense (yet another Norv Turner trademark taking fine form in San Diego) and are especially inept at stopping the run. They rank 27th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (151.0). The 4.6 yards per carry allowed is one of the worst marks in the league. The six rushing touchdowns surrendered thus far have been topped by only four teams.

The Broncos enjoy the run. They are, using last week’s numbers as a source of analysis, transforming into a team that can pass when such avenues are given. However, with Correll Buckhalter back in the fold you can bet the Broncos will be looking to exploit this weakness in the San Diego D. The potent mix of Buckhalter and Moreno was the catalyst for hard-fought wins earned early in the season and they will be utilized in full once again this week.

Their presence and the ability to eat up yards on the ground against a team proven to fail against those efforts will help the Broncos control the time of possession, it will keep Rivers and Company off the field, and it will put a dominating stamp on Denver’s pursuit of their sixth consecutive win.

2) Norv Turner is the coach in San Diego.

Here is what we have learned about Norv Turner over one dozen years of head coaching in the NFL.

- He is an offensive mastermind but is extremely reliant on the skills of the man behind center. He abuses his rushers by remaining loyal to a primary ball carrier rather than spreading the load. He struggles to analyze and utilize receivers for the skills they offer. His offensive line is never a point of proper concern.

- His systems lack innovation, in large part due to his decision to trust coordinators lacking plans that have produced results. Every guy on this coaching staff is old and the pile of tapes you can find on their work is as deep as any coaching staff in the business. They do not change, you know what is coming, and it’s proven to produce lackluster returns.

- Given proper time to implode he will.

It’s that simple. I love the guy… he’s good for hours upon hours of unintentional comedy. As long as he is working the opposing sideline, there is hope.

3) The Bolts one dimension plays into Denver’s strength.

100% of the plays run from scrimmage by the San Diego Chargers start with the hands of Philip Rivers. 65% of the plays run from scrimmage by the San Diego Chargers also end there. This team LOVES to pass for multiple reasons. Their offensive line is challenged at the guard positions and thus their efforts to run often fall short. The Bolts seem to believe Tomlinson is their best bet for carries and he’s not getting it done, if and when he is healthy (which is not often). Sproles has tons of upside but averages just 2.4 yards per carry, leading many to believe he simply can’t work as the primary option for carries.

Review the environment and the weapons on hand and you would likely push the ball to Rivers far too often as well… and this is the most alluring aspect of this review if you are a fan living in the Mile High.

The Broncos are limiting opposing passers to a lowly 59.4% completion rate. They are challenging receivers and making plays. They own six interceptions, have allowed just two passing touchdowns, and they have held those passers to less than 180 passing yards per game.

As we noted above, the teams they have faced have been looking to pass… and they are failing.

Jaws noted just how potent this backfield was last week: “The Broncos did a good job one some crucial plays in this game of taking away both Moss and Welker by doubling them and then affecting the release of their 3rd and/or 4th receiving option – Watson or Faulk – and this cause hesitation for Brady because of the re-routing and disruptive play by the Broncos Secondary.”

Jaworski also turned a spotlight to lack of assistance being offered out of the offensive backfied, namely from their veteran leader: “LaDainian Tomlinson did not bring much to the talent for the Chargers in this game – he had some poor runs, dropped a screen pass, and struggled on several occasions to pick up defenders in the passing game (did a very poor job in pass protection against the Steelers. Tomlinson does not seem to contain the special talent he had a couple of years back and lacks that once unique quickness and explosiveness he possessed in his prime.”

Translation: this San Diego offense puts much of the burden for progress on the arm of the quarterback, and when he fails, the Chargers fail.

Once again… and without doubt… give me the Denver Broncos. As long as I have thought about this game and turned over the matchup in my head, I cannot get over two facts.

The Chargers have no answer for DJ, Elvis, and Andra.

San Diego’s entire hope of earning yards rests in the hands of one man, and the Broncos know this and own the commodities to counter.

Those are facts. Those are proven, solidified facts. Turner’s biggest fears will be a three-man front without a healthy Tomlinson to pick up the assist and no fullback or tight end capable of filling that void. This offensive line is not nearly as strong as it should be (a Norv Turner trademark) and Rivers seems unlikely to find comfort in the pocket, and as Brady and Company learned last week, that pressure leads to hurries and hurries lead to mistakes. If the Broncos can establish their power against the run early, the rest will play as expected… and that’s the true beauty of this matchup.

This is what Norv Turner has done to this team. They are one dimensional and thus predictable on offense, they are battered and bruised as a result on defense, and they are undisciplined throughout. They are, in every, way, shape, and form, the antithesis of the Denver Broncos.

That’s why they are 2-2, why we are 5-0, and why those trends will continue in Week 6.

If you are picking the Chargers, you are lazy, you simply believe they the Broncos due, and you haven’t looked at the reality of the situation.

Thanks for stopping in.

Tags: Aaron Rodgers, Andra Davis, Antonio Gates, Artie Lang, Brandon Marshall, Brian Dawkins, BroncoTalk, Buffalo Wild Wings, Champ Bailey, Colorado Sports Desk, Correll Buckhalter, Cousin Sal, CTGFFL, Dallas Cowboys, Dan Patrick, Darren Sproles, Denver Broncos, DJ Williams, Drew Brees, Eddie Royal, Fanball, Football Outsiders, Freddie Barnes, Jay Cutler, Jeremy Maclin, Jim Rome, Josh McDaniels, Kellen Moore, Knowshon Moreno, Kobe Bryant, Kyle Orton, LaDainian Tomlinson, Monday Night, National Football Post, New England Patriots, Noel Devine, Norv Turner, Pat Bowlen, Philip Rivers, Quentin Jammer, Rich Eisen, Ron Jaworski, San Diego Chargers, Shawne Merriman, Taylor Mays, Toby Gerhart, Tom Brady, Vince Wilfork, Vincent Jackson, Vonnie Holliday