The Father Tax

I am starting to learn that my typical hatred of Halloween may not be warranted. Tonight I was reminded of three gifts this day brings.

The first is an opportunity to connect with fellow inmates of life while trolling the neighborhood in pursuit of your kids begging people you don’t know for free food, and as you go…

… so goes the beer.

The second, and possibly the most rewarding, is the Father Tax. In exchange for the walk I am paid in sweets, and a quick glance at my Chicklets shows I have an affinity for the sweets.

Last and certainly not least, you return home to find the kids are crashing on sugar and ready-made for sleep, the wife isn’t too far behind ‘em, and the gods of the DVR universe left two college tangles and a promising new sitcom for your pleasure.

(There are hundreds of dudes just like me watching that show and thinking, “Had I realized FX would give me license to curse and make crude sexual references based around fantasy football, I totally could have authored and developed this show.”)

I’m going to let the Boise State trouncing of San Jose State play as we trip back to the Stable for the previously-promised preview of tomorrow’s game in Baltimore. Earlier this afternoon, before the Hollowed Eve’s festivities began, we launched a prolonged session of links and news pertaining to your Denver Broncos and the Sunday that is to be for the Mile High faithful, and that gathering ate the bulk of the day.

Now we are back for more cash like Tony Kornheiser and we want to share the wealth.

The predictions from various sources on this particular game – many of which we offered in the aforementioned post – are consistent and similar in just one way: everyone agrees this game will be decided by less than a touchdown. The bulk of the industry seems ready to give the hometown Ravens a slight advantage, and many are using the much-anticipated “they have to fall sometime” argument as a primary pillar of support.

In my review of the game to be, spending far too many minutes over the last five days trying to envision what might unfold, I have yet to find the Broncos’ 6-0 record working as motivation for analysis. Simply stating a team has to lose at some point is not only lazy, it’s false. It may be LIKELY the team will eventually fall at some point this season, but that doesn’t make it an undeniable fate.

And it certainly doesn’t guarantee the Ravens any certain advantage.

Two Bullets for the Glass-Is-Half-Empty Crowd

- The Ravens own the most thorough offense Denver has faced this season.
Review the schedule played thus far and you might feel awkward suggesting as much, but it is a fact supported on the field and in the box score. The Ravens are posting an average of 268.3 passing yards per game, ranked 8th in the NFL. On the ground the Birds average 124.8 yards per game, good for 10th in the league. The Bengals, the Broncos first victim of the season, are primary feared for their prowess with the run. Cleveland and Oakland aren’t feared at all. Dallas has become a pass-orientated offense despite owning several quality rushers (held to just 3.0 yards per carry against Denver). The Patriots produced 305 total yards of offense against Denver with nearly 70% of that progress coming through the air while the Chargers found over 75% of their offense through the arm of the quarterback.

The Broncos have faced quality running backs – Cedric Benson, Marion Barber, Sammy Morris, LaDainian Tomlinson – but only one of those primary ball carriers (Morris) has averaged 4.0 yards per carry or better.

It is fair to note the Denver defense has played a heavy role in those results but no team faced thus far offers as much ability in both facets of the offense. Baltimore carries a powerful offensive line that has surrendered just 10 sacks on the season by pushing rushers Ray Rice to 6.0 yards per carry and Willis McGahee to 4.5. They are passing the ball on 60% of their snaps, indicating a strong sense of faith in both sides of the offensive coin. Consider their primary weapon of choice at running back also works as the second-leading receiver on the team and tally those short-range targets in the run category and the Baltimore essentially becomes a 50/50 proposition, and they are moving the chains no matter how they choose to advance the football.

- Ray Rice could be the most dangerous weapon against the typical 3-4 defense.
Willis McGahee may be the Ravens leading scorer today but Rice is the true source of inspiration. The man has 73 carries (28 more than McGahee), he’s done more with them (6.0 yards per carry versus 4.5 for Willis), and he has more receptions (33) than any other target on the team. The kid is a freak and he nearly an end to the Minnesota Vikings all by himself (77 yards rushing, 117 yards receiving. That battle against the Vikes also represents the most daunting challenge the Ravens have face this season, yet the Baltimore offense, led by Rice, enjoyed their best performance to date.

It is safe to say he is, without question, the most talented offensive force not working at quarterback (we don’t want to forget Tom Brady) the Broncos have faced thus far… and what worries the most is his ability to do damage after the catch. In his last two games Rice has combined for 17 receptions good for 191 receiving yards, including a 48-yard touchdown scramble against a valiant Cincinnati defense as well as a 63-yard reception against a stout Minnesota D, and the catch on both plays was made inside the first-down marker.

As we’ve seen thus far this season, both in the pre- and regular-season battles, those short-range receptions can be dangerous for the Denver defense. The efforts of Champ Bailey and company are restricting offenses to just 6.3 yards per reception (7th in the NFL). Nine receivers have earned 25 yards or more on one catch against this Denver backfield. Four of them were running backs, one was a tight end. Those are targets that take their yards after the catch and they are the sources of persistent frustration for the Broncos.

Rice may be the most dangerous of them all.

(I had every intention for posting three bullets on each side of this coin… but I’m struggling to come up with #3. Seriously. Lovin’ Flacco, lovin’ Rice… the other parts of the team we can appreciate don’t stand in position to make a tremendously-influential impact as individuals.)

(In today’s first post I was pissing and moaning that ESPN had not posted this on their YouTube Channel… and here it is, posted not too long after I posted that rant. Coincidence? Yeah, probably.)

Three Bullets for the Glass-Is-Half-Full Crowd

- Baltimore’s weakness (and lack of discipline) on D provides opportunity for the quarterback.
A review of the Baltimore defense seems to offer an avenue of hope. This team is allowing 21.7 points per game (19th in the NFL) on 332.7 total offensive yards per game (also 19th in the league). Against the run they are strong, surrendering less than 100 yards per game (91.2 to be exact, 7th in the league). Against the pass they are allowing 241.5 yards per game (23rd). It wasn’t that long ago this team was built on defense. Today the Ravens are earning respect for the work on offense while the D is aging and questionable, at best, in their backfield.

The name Ed Reed normally conjures dread for opposing quarterbacks, but this season the Ravens have struggled due to a lack of support from the corner. The loss of Samari Rolle to injury has been critical, leaving former Bronco Domonique Foxworth and Fabian Washington as the main men in coverage. Those two players have yet to post an interception this season, and as a result, opposing quarterbacks find no reason to avoid targets to either side of the field… and Reed can only be at so many places at one time.

Philip Rivers hit ‘em up for 436 yards through the air. Brady, struggling at the time, went for 258. Carson Palmer went for 271. Brett Favre followed with 278. Those men combined for seven touchdown passes versus just three interceptions (two of them coming against Rivers).

The Ravens also struggle with penalty against the pass. Reed has been deemed a liability at times… the penchant for improvisation and gamble once lauded as a gift is now exposed as a detriment due to the failures in coverage behind him. More often than not Reed is found out of position and guessing in the wrong direction.

If Kyle Orton has learned anything from McDaniels this season, it is an ability to identify the source of opportunity… and Reed’s love of the gamble has produced more than a few opportunities for quarterbacks this season.

- While they have needed a break or two along the way, no team is adjusting to the second half like the Denver Broncos.
As we noted at the start of the post, every soul in the world believes this game will be one of the toughest battles of the week. No one is willing to select either team winning by a large margin and even Las Vegas, setting the Ravens as a 3.5 -point favorite, finds this game as troublesome in evaluation as any on the board this week.

If and when the game is close, the smart money should, based on the events we’ve witnessed thus far, be on Denver.

There are many numbers produced by this Mile High squad that impress, but one number casually ignored may astound more than any other…

Of the 66 total points allowed by Denver this season, 10 (that’s correct my friends… look it up) of those points have been earned in the second half of these games.

TEN.

Seven of those points in the second half came in the Week 1 deflection-inspired win over Cincinnati. In the five games since the Broncos have surrendered a total of three points in the second half… and that came on a 50-yard field goal by Nate Kaeding.

Cleveland, Oakland, Dallas, New England… all shut down without scoring a single point in the second half of those games.

If you are telling me this game is going to be close, the numbers show, without debate, the advantage lies in the hands of the Denver Broncos.

- No matter your fear, you can find source of hope against the Ravens.
Take any point of positive review for the Ravens and there are obvious chinks in the armor.

They own the 7th-ranked rush defense in the land… and they have surrendered 263 combined rushing yards to two running backs over their last two games (120 to Cedric Benson, 143 to Adrian Peterson).

They are enjoying a surge from youth on offense yet the Ravens are struggling to win against competent opponents. Standing at 3-3 on the season, two of the Baltimore wins came against two of the worst teams in the land (Kansas City, Cleveland). The third win came on the road against a San Diego team without LaDainian Tomlinson, a victory earned by less than one touchdown. Their last three battles have brought quality competition – New England, Cincinnati, Minnesota – with three devastating losses suffered by a COMBINED total of 11 points.

Youth may be leading the charge in Baltimore and the yards are being put on the board, but the lack of experience appears to be hampering their efforts to produce wins… and in the areas where Baltimore owns experience, it may be fair to question if the gifts of that experience aren’t trumped by the downfalls of age.

While we noted many are looking at the Ravens as an offensive force, working at home in desperate need of a win, you could also suggest the Broncos may finally be earning the respect they deserve. The ESPN “experts” are, for the first time this season, split on their picks for this game. One facet of the Worldwide Leader’s crew (Scouts, Inc.) believes the Ravens will win in a hard-fought battle while the video clip above from the same organization selects Denver as the probable winner by a very close margin.

This writer is, once again, taking the Denver Broncos.

Josh McDaniels is one win away from becoming the only first-time coach in NFL history to begin with seven consecutive wins without a loss… and I believe he is the source of hope in this game. While the world is lauding Orton and Marshall and the rest of the Bronco offense for the work being done in passing, McDaniels has quietly solidified one of the most potent rushing attacks in the league.

Denver’s offense ranks 12th in the league in passing per game (236 yards per game) and the rise in proficient execution of that effort has earned the praise of each and every voice in the league.

However, few recognize (a) Denver ranks 24th in the NFL in pass attempts (a number that certainly fails to suggest the Broncos are overtly reliant on the arm of Orton), and (b) the Broncos rank 7th in the league in rushing, averaging 132.7 yards per game on the ground. They own just three rushing touchdowns but the crew is averaging an impressive 4.3 yards per carry.

To be fair, the Ravens will be just the second team Denver has faced ranked among the top half of the league in terms of rushing defense (Dallas ranks 16th and we are not counting them, the Bengals rank 5th). The numbers on the ground may be a bit inflated as a result of the competition… yet the competition isn’t exactly tearing it up against the pass either. The only teams Denver has faced currently earning rank in the top half of the NFL against the pass: New England (ranked 5th in pass defense), San Diego (ranked 11th), and Oakland (ranked 12th).

The opposition hasn’t been terribly successful against the pass and the Broncos would seem to be taking advantage, but the 30.8 rushing attempts per game (5th in the NFL) show the Broncos are every bit as thorough as the Ravens when it comes to moving the chains.

That puts this game in the hands of the defenses… and in that battle, I love the Denver Broncos. Elvis Dumervil is facing a decisive advantage against rookie tackle Michael Oher, coming off a troubled effort against Jared Allen. The Ravens may be scoring a ton of points but they are surrendering more than their fair share as well (21.7 points per game, ranked 19th in the NFL). They have surrendered 22 passing plays of 20 yards or more, six of them going for 40 + (only five other teams have surrendered more “big plays” through the air thus far).

And at the end of the day, one fact stands above all others…

… the Ravens have faced four teams with .500 records or better this season. In those games they are 1-3.

Give me Denver. They can take advantage of any opening Baltimore may offer and, while Rice may do work, he can’t win this one on his own.

Thanks for stopping in, and enjoy today’s festivities.

Tags: Baltimore Ravens, Brandon Marshall, Brian Dawkins, Champ Bailey, Correll Buckhalter, Denver Broncos, Ed Reed, Joe Flacco, Josh McDaniels, Knowshon Moreno, Kyle Orton, Ray Rice, Week 8