Lost in Translation
November 8th, 2009 | by Bryan Douglass |There are times when the message gets lost in the words.
The words most are throwing since the Broncos fell to Baltimore suggest everyone under the sun expected Denver might have been a fraud. They are taking one loss and suggesting it proves all hope for true respect in the Mile High is lost.
We will see…
Onward and upward… let’s run through the weekly gauntlet of links before we jump into the late-night breakdown of what we expect to see from the Monday Night matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
(We won’t get too deep into the news and notes of the week from around the NFL universe this evening. We hit a few of them earlier this week, my stomach is grinding on the brats I downed off the grill, my head is grinding off the joy of watching Boise State, Stanford, and Cincy win on Saturday, and the loss to Baltimore has me anxious to get knee deep into Week 9… no use putting all of that motivation to waste.)
- The big news of the week was the signing of Ty Law, a move you could take in almost any analytical direction you like. It’s another brick in the growing wall of age that is the Broncos’ defensive backfield. It’s another former employee of the New England Patriots add to the fold. It’s another move of financial benefit (Law signed for $200K, a pittance by NFL standards). It’s another wager on talent forgotten. More than anything, it’s a move that makes you wonder… what is Josh thinking?
(Personally, I believe Josh is looking at the age in that backfield and figures the gifts could be diminished by the abuse of the regular season, and thus there is strength in numbers. And I can buy into that.)
To help offer perspective on the latest edition…
- Lindsay Jones with the Denver Post checks in with some notes on Law (though we warn there isn’t much depth to her offerings on this one).
- Stable-approved Post member Jeff Legwold brought some thoughts of his own.
- The Mile High Report offered the most thorough breakdown of Law’s past (but like Lindsay, they didn’t offer much in terms of analysis in this post).
- Instead the MHR opened the thread of thought to their readers.
- As you might expect, Billy kept his thoughts on the Law short and sweet.
Moving on…
- Brandon Marshall’s spot on the Sports Soup found on Versus… this is Part 1. You’ll find Part 2 below.
- The Sporting News reports the Steelers will be without several starters. The story turns focus to safety Ryan Clark, a source of inspiration for many stories as he has struggled to determine if his affliction (sickle cell) and the potential health hazards that condition can bring in higher elevations are worth the risk. Not to downplay Clark’s situation… but I am much, MUCH more intrigued by the loss of inside linebacker Lawrence Timmons (one of the best young defenders you rarely hear about on this Pittsburgh squad).
- The Associated Press turned their spotlight to the coaches doing battle on Monday night this week.
- Kim with Predominantly Orange checks in with her weekly feature on the benefits of cheering for Denver over Pittsburgh.
- We go back to Jeff Legwold as he turns focus to the primary source of offense for the Steel Curtain.
- And Gary Horton with ESPN agrees… you have to put the clamps on Big Ben.
- Mike Chambers of the Post checks in on the thoughts offered on the week ahead by Kyle Orton.
- Mr. East with BroncoTalk.net checks in with his thoughts on the week.
- Chris Gentilviso with the Bronco’s Web Team turned his attentions to the offensive line, as we intend to do below.
- The great MJD with Yahoo’s Shutdown Corner dedicated his podcast this week to an in-depth look at the Denver Broncos… and it’s a listen I recommend. I went back to it several times this week.
- And since we are here, to go off the Denver path a bit, Doug Farrar with the Shutdown Corner offers this thoughtful op-ed on the state of the economy and how it has touched the National Football League.
- We go back to Jeff Legwold once again for a look at Pittsburgh’s version of the 3-4 defense.
- Brian Howell with the Longmont Times-Call hopes Denver can reverse fortunes and find success early.
- Dan Parr with Pro Football Weekly wonders how long it may before Brandon Marshall turns toxic again (we asked this in our immediate reactions to the Week 8 loss, thus we find it hard to argue with Parr’s take here).
- We offered this one earlier in the week but the message has been rung by many and no one put it forth as well as Ron Jaworski… can the Broncos solidify a viable threat down the field?
- The propaganda machine spit out a few minutes with Mario Haggan this week.
- There is no shortage of power in this Pittsburgh defense, but to be honest… LaMarr Woodley scares me more than any other defensive player in the league.
- TJ Johnson with the Mile High Report agrees with us… Josh is smarter than you, and his work to improve the punting proves it.
- Once again we remind… this may be the biggest concern this week.
- That’s Part 2 (as promised) of B-Marsh’s visit with the Sports Soup on Versus. Enjoy.
- Three reasons for loving Deadspin this week… here… here… and here.
- This week’s Walkthrough with Mike Tanier at Football Outsiders.
- The latest on injuries from the MHR…
- For those thinking about Kyle Orton’ s arm today…
- … and those thinking about his arm tomorrow.
And that brings us to the weekly offerings of gluttony.
The Bill Williamson Buffet
(The AFC West blogger for ESPN is a former newspaper man from the local scene making good and he comes up with a long list of hits for the Denver faithful each week.)
… the AFC West Stock Watch.
… AFC West Power Rankings for Week 9.
… a podcast visit with Brandon Marshall.
… the By the Numbers feature for the week, a simple statistical review of the AFC West after eight weeks.
… Evening News and Notes from November 4th.
… Around the AFC West from November 5th.
… Bill’s “Needs Improvement” feature of the week, noting Denver’s effort to find the red zone.
… Bill’s chat transcript of the week.
… it comes from the left coast, but Bill takes a look at local-boy-made-good Vincent Jackson.
… Bill’s Final Word for the week.
… Evening News and Notes from November 6th.
… the AFC West Mailbag (including some video hits).
… a look at the men behind the wheel.
We love you Bill. Safe travels (he’ll be here in Denver for the Monday night throwdown).
The Stable Game Previews Buffet
From the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette…
From the Sports Xchange…
From Mike Florio at ProFootballTalk.com…
From Ross Tucker with Sports Illustrated…
From Peter King with Sports Illustrated…
From Cris Collinsworth, Warren Sapp, and Phil Simms on Showtime…
From Pete Prisco with CBSSports.com…
From the NFL Capsules with CBS Sportsline…
From the National Football Post…
From the ESPN “experts”…
From the Yahoo “experts”…
From the great MJD at the Shutdown Corner…
… and for the Mile High faithful, from the Mile High Report.
And that brings us to…
The Fanball Buffet
- Last week’s Projections Report from Kyle Elfrink.
- NFL Trend or Mirage from Brian Jonas.
- Sunday Surveillance from Cory Elfrink.
- Buy Low – Sell High from Ted Carlson.
- Target Analysis from Jason Collette.
- Fantasy Cup College Lineup Edge from my good friend Don VanDemark.
- Strength of Schedule Analysis from Rick Hawes.
- Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em from Ryan Boyer.
- SnapDraft Picks from Seth Trachtman.
- Flex Rankings from Ted Carlson.
- IDP Stat Analysis from Mark Hooper.
- Office Pool Picks from Ryan Houston.
- Fantasy Football Tip Sheet from Rick Hawes.
- Quality Games Review & Preview from Bob Lung.
… and my moment of self promotion.
- Any and everything golf at Fanball.
- My true moment of glory, 5 Questions Owner’s Aren’t Asking.
- I haven’t posted yet today but will be sharing late this evening at the Buffalo Wild Wings All-Star Blogger Fantasy Challenge (though, to be honest, it’s not going well).
And thus we can move on the business at hand…
We will run through the glass with both views after these three admissions.
1) I openly rooted for the Pittsburgh Steelers in each and every Super Bowl won under Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin. I find both to be intriguing figures, I enjoy their style of play, and you have to respect the results.
2) I have waxed poetic on my appreciation for Ben in the past at various digs, and would continue to do so given the opportunity moving forward.
3) I have come to believe Dick LeBeau may be the most underrated assistant coach of this NFL era, for his defenses have been some of the most powerful we have seen on the field. He can draft, he can scheme, and he can coach. This year is no exception.
So… with that out of the way, we can move focus to a proximity closer to the Rocky Mountains.
Three Bullets for the Glass-Is-Half-Empty Portion of the Audience
- The Pittsburgh defense may be the only crew in professional football that is better than the defense that stifled the Broncos last week.
I am sorry, but this is an undeniable fact. Reading the depth chart of this crew is enough to make any football fan wonder how anyone in this league scores on this team. Troy Polamalu is healthy, wealthy, and wise. James Harrison is fresh off an ‘08 campaign that could have (and should have) earned MVP votes, and he’s back at it again this season. James Farrior and Casey Hampton are proven and capable. Ike Taylor is capable of making plays. And as I stated above…
… LaMarr Woodley might be the league’s new face of gloom and doom for quarterbacks.
The Steelers will be missing Lawrence Timmons but the overall speed and strength of this defensive crew can dominate regardless.
- The Steelers, unlike the Ravens, carry a list of wide receivers any team in the league would envy.
Ben may get the headlines and Hines Ward may be the league’s dirtiest player (I would have voted for Flozell Adams) but the guy is truly hated because he makes plays. He’s one of the elder statesmen at the position and he can still take a pitch over the middle and turn it into 20 yards as quick as any player on the field. Santonio Holmes has become the deep threat of choice, and while his numbers this season are lagging if the hope was to see progress, he remains a threat and is starting to include more intermediate and timed routes to improve his reception totals. Add Mike Wallace, easily rated as the fastest man on a team full of track stars, and his lethal skills down the field and you have a receiving corps that may represent the best challenge the Denver defense has faced to date (New England could be on this level but Wes Welker was not 100% when they came to town).
- The one quarterback an undersized defensive line does not want to face is Ben Roethlisberger.
The true gifts of value brought to the field by Roethlisberger are (a) his undying confidence that borders on being cocky, (b) his size, and (c) his ability to scramble and make plays on the run. The Steelers are at their best when the offensive line is not challenged (they are good, they are not great) and Ben can step into the pocket and wait for his receivers to get down the field. However, if that breaks down (and with Elvis Dumervil, it will) Ben has the size to escape the pressure with the arm to make the thrown. He may not be the most accomplished quarterback the Broncos have faced (Brady has a slight edge there), but he is the toughest.
So we flip it…
Three Bullets for the Glass-Is-Half-Full Portion of the Peanut Gallery
- The Broncos carry the edge in terms of power on the offensive line and may represent the best unit Pittsburgh has seen this season.
Not that there isn’t competition for that title – Tennessee, Cincinnati, and Minnesota could be on the same level – but if any line in the league this season can test a Pittsburgh defense working without Timmons, it would be Denver’s. There is worry with the loss of Ryan Harris, one of the more underrated rush blockers in the business, but the Broncos own the depth the, at the very least, formulate a successful committee approach (one of the better moves of McDaniels this offseason, adding Brandon Gorin and Russ Hochstein to join Tyler Polumbus off the bench). The Steelers own, according to the numbers, the best rushing defense in the land… but the Broncos are going to be running the football. With Correll Buckhalter healthy and Knowshon Moreno improving, the Broncos will be willing to commit to a concerted effort to run, and they have the blockers to test those waters over and again.
- Pittsburgh isn’t the only team touting a top-rated defense.
The numbers tell this story for me.
Total Defense (Rank)
Denver (1)
Pittsburgh (6)
Pass Defense (Rank)
Denver (6)
Pittsburgh (13)
Rush Defense (Rank)
Pittsburgh (1)
Denver (3)
Points Allowed per Game
Denver (2)
Pittsburgh (7)
Sacks
Denver (2)
Pittsburgh (4)
Give/Take
Denver (+6)
Pittsburgh (-3)
The game represents any and everything a fan of old-school football would want from a Monday night and the bulk of the numbers suggest Denver is holding a slight edge… and when you throw a lackluster Pittsburgh offensive line in the mix, a big day for Elvis and DJ is not hard to imagine.
- The Steelers do not own a talent on special teams that could expose Denver’s obvious shortcomings in return coverage.
That is where the game was truly lost last week. The 95-yards jailbreak by Lardarius Webb was the straw that broke Denver’s back, putting Baltimore up by two scores that Denver has yet to match. It was a problem we’d seen in previous games and it appears to be one that is not easily fixed… but this week it may not be a major issue. Pittsburgh ranks 15th in kickoff return yardage without a touchdown and a modest 56-yard top return thus far. It is worse on punts, ranked 22nd in the NFL averaging just 6.6 yards per return. Those are numbers Denver can live with.
I said this last week, and while it proved untrue in Baltimore, I believe it will serve me well when the venue is our own backyard, the weather is going south, and we are on Monday night.
If you are telling me this game is going to be close, like Denver’s chances. They need to stay true to their strengths by giving both Bucky and Knowshon carries. The absence of Timmons leaves enough hope to believe Orton’s short arm can be utilized. Brandon Marshall has a decisive advantage over Ike Taylor and should be used for his freakish athletic gifts in picking up yards after the catch. The arrival of Ty Lawson may inspire those old foggies in the backfield to regain some dignity after letting Joe Flacco push that game above in beyond last week.
The loss of Ryan Harris is certainly concerning and may rank as the second-most damaging source of stress in this game, but Denver has the position covered by multiple options of proven resume off the bench.
Both teams have skills at the same positions, they use the same schemes, they hold power in the same places. It’s a wonderful match that may be the most balanced we’ve seen in a long time.
I’ll give the Broncos a nudge with the homefield advantage, the lack of fear from Pittsburgh’s return game, and the desire to put questions and doubt to rest.
Give me the Broncos.
Thanks for stopping in.
