Playing with Fire
November 15th, 2009 | by bpdouglass |The snow is falling in Denver once again, and that can only mean one thing…
… it’s time for football, and it’s time for our weekly pregame ritual.
Let’s run through the links of the week, followed by the trademark Stable Buffets, followed by the official game preview for this week’s battle in the nation’s capital.
- Joseph White with the Associated Press thinks the start of Josh McDaniels’ career in Denver is eerily similar to the start of the Jim Zorn era in Washington.
- Our good friend Kyle from BroncoTalk.net believes Peyton Hillis could be the answer to Denver’s woes.
- TJ Johnson with the Mile High Report turned to the statistical listing to prove what we asserted following the loss to Pittsburgh… there is no reason for such grave concern.
- The propaganda machine at Dove Valley was hard at it again, reminding the locals that Champ Bailey is still working the Denver backfield and that should be a reason for hope.
- In case you hadn’t heard, the Skins will be without Clinton Portis this week.
- Arnie Stapleton with the Associated Press feels the Broncos may be their own worst enemy.
- We check in with Kyle at BroncoTalk.net once again for notes from the press conferences at Dove Valley on Wednesday.
- Stable-approved Post man Jeff Legwold reminds us of one reason to fear the Washington Redskins this week.
- The folks at Yahoo put the spotlight on the Broncos via video this week…
- The folks at RealScouts (associated with the Sporting News) seem to think Norv Turner has it all over the Broncos and thus the Chargers will prevail.
- Emmett Smith from the Mile High Report wants to dispel the rumors and lies.
- If you hadn’t noticed, the Skins are having major troubles on the offensive line.
- Dave Krieger, another member of the Post party line, thinks the Broncos could find improved gains with a few minor tweeks.
- Josh McDaniels has decided to supplant Ben Hamilton at left guard with Ross Hochstein, leading Mike Klis with the Denver Post to ask a few questions (btw, we address this change in full for the fantasy football faithful… and you’ll find that offering below in the Fanball Buffet).
- Since we are here… Woody Paige still works for the Post and he wants you to know that “hundreds” of folks support his desired change to Chris Simms, though he fails to produce a single example and instead went with “the one” email that failed to fall in line with the Woody Paige march towards stupidity.
- Kim with Predominantly Orange spent a few moments with Bronco great Karl Mecklenburg.
- Josh Barrett (hamstring) and Ryan McBean (knee) won’t be available for this week’s battle in the nation’s capital.
- Chris Gentilviso with the team’s staff in Dove Valley is thinking the Broncos could start putting more emphasis on the run (would have been nice to see that last week).
- The propaganda machine also spent some time with Matt Prater this week.
- Jim Saccomano was enticed to check in with his own offerings of hope and good will.
- Our friend Jeremy with the Colorado Sports Desk is thinking he deserves a shot behind center…
- Say what you like about Kyle Orton. He is accountable.
- This week’s three reasons to love Deadspin can be found here… here… and here.
- For those of you that continue to enjoy the art of bashing Jay Cutler…
- You may have missed it, but the folks at Football Outsiders focused on Kyle Orton and his tell in their video offering for the Washington Post this week.
And that’s all I’ve got… we normally offer much more, but (a) the bulk of the world feels two losses is more than enough to discard Denver as a viable topic of discussion, (b) I am going to avoid my normal sidebars into national and business news (kind of a slow week for this stuff), and (c) I’m not willing to dive into the wave of anti-Cutler links that have flooded the market (if that’s your thing, I apologize… I gave you the rip from Mel Kiper and the rest of the world fails to stray too far from those same “insights” and emotion).
Let’s move on to the buffet table.
The Bill Williamson Buffet
(The AFC West blogger for ESPN is a former newspaper man from the local scene making good and he
comes up with a long list of hits for the Denver faithful each week.)
… the Rapid Reaction from the Pittsburgh loss.
… the AFC West Stock Watch.
… Josh gets a spot on the AFC West Hot Seat.
… AFC West Power Rankings for Week 10.
… a midseason report on the Broncos.
… a video report card on the AFC West from John Clayton.
… Evening Notes from the 11th.
… the Blogger’s Blitz for the week.
… Players to Watch (including Knowshon).
… Bill’s “Needs Improvement” feature of the week.
(No chat for Bill this week… you bastard.)
… Evening News and Notes from the 12th.
… Down the Stretch with Denver, San Diego.
… Bill’s Final Word for the week.
… evening News and Notes from November 13th.
… the AFC West Mailbag (including some video hits).
As always… we love you Bill. Safe travels (he’s heading to Oakland this weekend to watch the sensational classic in waiting, the Chiefs vs. Raiders).
And thus we turn to the second table in the buffet line…
The Stable Game Previews Buffet
From the Redskins…
From the Washington Post…
From NFL Films…
From the Sports Xchange…
From Mike Tanier with Football Outsiders, via the New York Times…
From Mike Florio at ProFootballTalk.com…
From the Sports Guy…
From Peter King with Sports Illustrated…
From the Sporting News…
From Snoop…
From Cris Collinsworth, Warren Sapp, and Phil Simms on Showtime…
From the NFL Capsules with CBS Sportsline…
From Predominantly Orange…
From Cousin Sal…
From Scouts Inc…
From the ESPN “experts”…
From Mike and Mike…
From ESPN’s Sunday Countdown crew…
From the Yahoo “experts”…
From the great MJD at the Shutdown Corner…
From USAToday…
From the National Football Post…
And for the Mile High faithful, from the Mile High Report…
As well as BroncoTalk.net…
Which brings us to the indulgent offerings of…
The Fanball Buffet
- Last week’s Projections Report from Kyle Elfrink.
- NFL Trend or Mirage from Brian Jonas.
- Sunday Surveillance from Cory Elfrink.
- Buy Low – Sell High from Ted Carlson.
- Target Analysis from Jason Collette.
- Fantasy Cup College Lineup Edge from my good friend Don VanDemark.
- Strength of Schedule Analysis from Rick Hawes.
- Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em from Ryan Boyer.
- SnapDraft Picks from Seth Trachtman.
- IDP Stat Analysis from Mark Hooper.
- Office Pool Picks from Ryan Houston.
- Fantasy Football Tip Sheet from Rick Hawes.
- Quality Games Review & Preview from Bob Lung.
… and my moment of self promotion.
- Any and everything golf at Fanball.
- My true moment of glory, 5 Questions Owner’s Aren’t Asking (and as mentioned, we go through the Ben Hamilton versus Ross Hochstein debate in this one).
- My latest post at the blog adjoined to the Buffalo Wild Wings All-Star Blogger Fantasy Challenge (though, to be honest, it’s not going well).
And with that in the rearview, we turn to the game.
Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins, 1:00pm ET, CBS
Three Bullets for the Glass-Is-Half-Empty Crowd
- The Redskins have absolutely nothing to care about.
This could be a positive or negative for the Broncos… but a team without a care is willing to do just about anything on the football field. They don’t have a care in the world, at least as a unit. They are driven by personal motivations and goals, and that means you could see just about anything once the kickoff is sent away.
Granted, much of what we have seen suggests this will be a negative in Washington’s column… there is nothing I fear more than a team that fears nothing, and the Skins have nothing to fear. Their coach is a lame duck, their season is over, and personal glory – i.e. the hunt of the SportsCenter highlight – may be the best motivation on the field (and that means the Skins might be just a lil’ bit crazy).
- The Skins employ London Fletcher, Brian Orakpo, and Albert Haynesworth.
Hidden in the mess that has been a season in hell for the Washington Redskins is a collection of defensive talents any coach would envy, and much of their power can be found working right up front. Fletcher has been vying for the league lead in tackles since Week 1, and while that is helped by the offensive failures found in Washington (leaving Fletcher on the field more often than not), he is not without answer when the football is in play.
Orakpo is one of the hidden stories no one is noticing this year as well. The Skins’ top draft pick of this season, the kid is a phenomenally-gifted athlete with a penchant for havoc and mayhem. In review of film on the Skins you will find the kid often moves from the outside linebacker spot… he drops to his knuckles, lines up next to Andre Carter on the defensive line, and they blitz the quarterback with a tenacity few teams can match. He posted two sacks against a formidable Atlanta offense last week, bringing him to 5.5 sacks on the season. That’s strong for a guy in his first season in the professional ranks.
And of course, that brings us to Haynesworth. 25 total tackles, three sacks, no forced fumbles… there is nothing here to suggest he is doing anything of worth. However, in film review you will find the opposition’s undying need to double up on Haynesworth creates a positive environment of opportunity for Orakpo, Fletcher and Carter, and a review of the team numbers shows just how influential Haynesworth’s presence has been.
The Skins currently rank 5th in the NFL in overall defense, allowing just 286.3 total yards of offense per game. They are also holding teams under 20 points per game (19.3 to be exact), good for a rank of 9th among NFL combatants. In fact, the Skins own the league’s most dominating pass defense, holding teams to just 6.3 yards per attempt for 160 passing yards per game. They have collected 21 sacks, a number topped by only six other teams in the league.
That effort is made possible by one of the most potent defensive fronts in the land, it is flourishing despite a horrendous swing in time of possession for the Skins, and for a third week in a row the spotlight will be turned to the Denver offensive line as they attempt to get it right… and we don’t need to review the last two weeks to tell you how that is going.
- That’s all I’ve got.
If you are a regular at The Stable you know I adore the number three… I do everything in groups of three. I can’t complete that desire this time around. I struggle to find three positive bullet points for the Redskins. I was going to consider the special teams here (an area Denver struggles to defend), but the Skins, like most, don’t have it. I would worry about this but Matt Williamson with Scouts Inc. seems to agree. They turned to the “Broncos are being asked to do too much, coming off two demoralizing losses on a short week of rest” card. It’s a fair point, but it’s a reach.
And thus we will accept this for what it is and move on.
On the flip…
Three Bullets for the Glass-Is-Half-Full Crowd
- The Skins are hoping Stephon Heyer or Levi Jones can stop Elvis Dumervil, and he can’t.
The offensive line has been a travesty for the Skins since the loss of Chris Samuels, and their decision to move Heyer to the left side has done nothing but complicate the issue. He lacks the athletic skills needed to wrangle the elite pass rushers you will find from that left side, and as such he is failing… over the last five games the Skins have surrendered 20 sacks, many of them coming from that left side.
The Skins have supposedly bolstered the effort by adding Levi Jones who may get the bulk of the snaps at left tackle. Keep in mind he was unemployed until the Skins made that gamble. NO ONE felt Jones was worthy of a paycheck and there are PLENTY of teams that could use help at offensive tackle. Even if Levi wasn’t two weeks into his career with the Skins we could suggest, with ease, he wouldn’t be up the challenge.
This is a tremendous gift for the Broncos this week, giving Dumervil – one of the most elusive pass-rushing ends in the league – an outstanding opportunity to pad the box score and put the hurt on the quarterback… and he shouldn’t be alone. The entire offensive line for the Skins is in disarray as they have implemented various changes for this squad coming into the week. An offensive line needs time to build chemistry and a cohesive effort, and the Skins haven’t given them a chance to do so.
The Broncos should take full advantage.
- The only offense struggling worse than Denver would be the Washington Redskins.
This story is so long it can’t be retold here… let’s let the numbers do the talking for us.
Total Offensive Yards/Game: 298.0 (24th in the NFL)
Points per Game: 14.1 (29th)
Passing Yards per Game: 199 (20th)
Rushing Yards per Game: 98.8 (23rd)
Average Yards per Kickoff Return: 22.8 (16th, possibly their most potent facet of earning yards)
Average Yards per Punt Return: 4.1 (30th)
You can question how Denver may work in attempts to move the chains, but you cannot do the same for Washington… ’cause they don’t.
And that could give tremendous opportunity to the one guy Washington doesn’t want to see taking catches over the middle…
- This is the perfect opportunity to utilize and implement the rushing attack.
The numbers listed above served as support for the Skins defense were primary focused on their work against the pass. Against the run, the Skins have proven vulnerable, and it would seem a simple review of the situation at hand would push Josh to, for the first time in weeks, emphasize efforts on the ground.
The Skins currently surrender an average of 126.4 rushing yards per game, ranked 24th in the NFL. That comes to a measure of 4.2 yards per carry, but more importantly, they crew from the nation’s capital seems to struggle against the big play.
The overall numbers against Carolina a few weeks ago, giving up just 86 total rushing yards, seems to contradict this notion until you realize Jonathan Stewart, the young power rusher for the Cats, posted 29 rushing yards on just five carries in the fourth quarter. His 5.8 yards per carry put an end to the Skins in a hard-fought battle there, giving up 11 points in the 4th set to lose by three. Two weeks ago the Philadelphia Eagles, without Brian Westbrook, posted 122 total rushing yards on 27 carries, good for 4.5 yards per including the one rush by receiver DeSean Jackson for a 67-yard touchdown. Last week the Falcons piled on, earning 181 total rushing yards on 27 carries (6.7 yards per) including a 30-yards touchdown run by Michael Turner in the 2nd quarter topped by a 58-yard scamper by Turner in the fourth.
We have been kicking and screaming for a turn to the rushing offense for Denver and this matchup presents ideal conditions to do so.
Needless to say I am taking the Denver Broncos once again this week, and while there are more than a few points of inspiration to consider on the board, I reflect on one simple fact.
The world has officially given up on this team. Most have removed the Broncos from their playoff predictions, most are claiming definition as “fraud” works best for the Broncos, and most have no justification for those “prognostications” other than the final scores attached to two consecutive losses and the performance of Kyle Orton in those games.
If I have learned anything from these games it is this.
(a) Even when the competition is as fierce as ever and the Denver offense is not working, the defense is more than capable of keeping the game in check. The Broncos may have found a horrendous point differential by the end of the losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but both games were still within reason despite a complete lack of offense after three quarters. If you choose to employ the final scores of those games as the overwhelming influence for analysis of this Denver defense then you are just a fraudulent in your analysis as you claim the Denver Broncos have been in earning six wins.
(b) When the Broncos have struggled it has been against linebackers and safeties focused on halting Orton’s short-range arm. The Steelers and Ravens used their talents at safety – Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed respectively – to crowd the middle and play as the linebacker in wait while the true linebackers were sent to attack the quarterback and halt the run. The Skins have London Fletcher, as we noted, but he’s a weapon against the run. He is NOT a gift of giving when it comes to covering the short-range pass and the Skins lack the presence at safety needed to bolster that effort… actually, they may have the talent to do this but they fail to utilize him. LaRon Landry has the gifts to work among the elite forces at the safety position but the Skins are so horrendous in coverage that he must be used to shadow the corner, and to be honest, the base 4-3 defense the Skins employ wouldn’t put Landry in position to make plays anyway. They have NO IDEA how to use him, and thus they aren’t likely to find the same success in putting the open targets down the field and out of Orton’s range of comfort.
(c) If there is one matchup I adore in this game it is Josh McDaniels versus Jim Zorn… or more to the point, it is Josh McDaniels versus the entire Washington organization. This team has at least three different influences in the plays being called in the moment and if we have learned anything from the process thus far, it is that the Skins are broken from the inside out. Their ownership sucks, their management sucks, their coaching sucks, their game preparation sucks, they ability to formulate a viable plan of attack completely sucks, and their ability to utilize the gifts on hand completely and totally sucks. They have yet to formulate ONE game that suggests otherwise.
The Skins own two wins: a Week 2 victory by two points (9-7) over the St. Louis Rams (one of the only teams on the NFL map that may be worse than Washington) and the Week 4 win by three points (16-13) over the Tampa Bay Bucs (another trainwreck of an organization). Losses against Detroit, Carolina, and Kansas City prove this entire organization is without proper leadership. You cannot have THIS much talent on the roster and fall to those teams.
In other words, I’m finding it hard to ignore the vast and immeasurable advantage the Broncos own over the Skins in measures of intelligence, in organizational command, and in execution.
And I didn’t even mention the loss of Clinton Portis.
The rest of the world is ready to toss Denver on the heap as a team without hope, and this week they will end those doubts (at least momentarily) by putting the wood to the Skins.
I love Denver in this one… I love them in every facet of the battle and I find it hard to believe they won’t win by a sizeable margin.
(And when it is done, be prepared for those same heads that claim the Broncos as frauds today to continue their assertions by noting the Skins weren’t a worthy test. That’s how this works.)
Thanks for stopping in.
Tags: Denver Broncos, Washington Redskins, Week 10
