The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly

As we are apt to do in times of need, we have put space (and barley) between the shock of the moment and where we stand today.

The five stages of loss have been fulfilled… the denial was as immediate as expected. The anger was relieved by a quick trip to the garage, and the attempt to bargain with the loss was met with the depression of a realization, a realization that the elation of 6-0 is gone and cannot be replaced. We have reached acceptance, with closure was gained by the third and final viewing of Sunday’s loss in Washington.

In case you hadn’t noticed, the life of The Stable is designed to follow the structure of three. Every facet of our lives can be classified in as little as three categories, and football is not an exception to the rule (offense, defense, special teams). There are three sides to every event, every story, every incident… the side of one, the side of the other, and the truth that lies somewhere in between.

For the Mile High, we are three days removed (more or less) from our third loss of the season, and thus we address three points of analysis with three perspectives of contemplation.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Positive
Eddie Royal continues to provide positive gains in his work as the point man for kickoff returns. Three returns for 70 yards against Washington puts him at 23.7 yards per return (less than three yards per from joining the top 10), good for 20th in the NFL, and of the 19 folks listed above his name you will find seven share Eddie’s push to the end zone while only four return men possess a higher average with fewer attempts. In other words, the Broncos aren’t getting too many kick returns as the bulk of the world struggles to earn the right (they aren’t scoring), and when they do, Royal has ‘em working in good graces.

The Negative
The Broncos were more than happy to kick punter Brett Kern to the curb following leg work that easily ranked among the worst in the league, turning to veteran Mitch Berger to take over the duties on punts.

As we sit today, Kern is averaging 45.3 yards per punt (picked up by Tennessee where he has suddenly rediscovered his talent for putting the opposition inside the 20… he has more punts inside the 20 in three games with the Titans than he posted in five games with Denver), ranked 11th in the league. To be fair, we should note Kerns is netting just 36.4 yards per punt, falling to 31st in the league.

Mitch Berger? He’s averaging 39.7 yards per punt, ranked 33rd amongst the professionals at the position, netting 36.5 per (ranked 30th).

At best you could say the results remain unchanged. An honest review would suggest it has gotten worse. Look at it this way… 41% of Kern’s punts are landing inside the 20. For Berger we are looking at 21%.

(And we didn’t even mention Todd Yoder.)

The Truth
The Broncos routinely suffer due to their inability to influence poor field position for the opposition. The Royal Treatment may be giving the Broncos hope on returns but the work put forth in halting the antagonist is pathetic. Teams are averaging 24.8 yards per kickoff return against the Broncos, a number topped by just six teams. The numbers are worse in defense of punt returns, giving up 11.8 yards per (ranked 28th in the NFL).

Review the teams struggling in those same departments and you’ll come to one conclusion: these teams suck, and if they don’t it can be blamed on a prolific offense that allows the team to overcome (like New Orleans, Indianapolis, or Arizona). Denver isn’t so lucky.

OFFENSE

The Positive
Before falling to injury Kyle Orton was well on his way to the best game of his season and, possibly, the best individual performance of his career. He completed 11-of-18 from the pocket, averaging 10.7 per (more than two yards per attempt better than his best single-game performance of the season coming in). More importantly, he was finding the long-overdue connection with Brandon Marshall down the field. Orton targeted Marshall six times before his fall, completing four of those six attempts for an average of 33 yards per. Keep this number in mind.

We also need to mention that Knowshon enjoyed his best performance of the season. The 5.4 yards per carry he averaged against Washington was the best mark hit since averaging 4.2 against New England. That’s four games for the kid with 18 carries or more. In those four games he’s averaging 4.1 yards per carry. In the other five games he averages 3.7. Throw the 17 carries for 75 ticks against Cleveland on the other side of the fence… that’s 4.15 yards per in games with 17+, 3.4 yards per in games with 16 or fewer.

The Negative
Chris Simms.

We could throw this topic into a full, 3,000-word post of its own (you would guess a guy averaging 1.0 yards per pass couldn’t possibly earn that many words… but he could, with ease).

Understand many of you were yelling for this kid following a tumultuous preseason. Understand Woody Paige was all too anxious to revive that cry last week, and more than a few were happy to join him on the bandwagon destined for hell (where Woody belongs… did I just say that out loud).

There is plenty of blame to go around, and as we’ve noted before the beginning and end of the blame game is covered by Josh McDaniels, but the only emotion that trumps the overwhelming desire to vomit in review of Simms’ performance is the shocking realization of Orton’s importance to the effort. In assessing the most poignant source of disdain from this particular experience, Simms is, without question, the leader in the clubhouse.

The Truth
As we noted, there is a full buffet of blame to be passed around. We noted the Skins had the power to put in work on defense, and we warned that Brian Orakpo and Andre Carter would deliver that message. Guard play needs to improve (and the return of Ryan Harris, while beneficial, will only do so much). The effort to utilize Eddie Royal needs to improve.

This offense lacks identity, and more importantly, they lack a proven source of inspiration. There are moments from Kyle. There are moments from Knowshon. There are moments from Brandon. They rarely come in tandem, they never come in force, and they are always short lived.

DEFENSE

The Positive
I have nothing.

I’m sorry. I have nothing. I’ve watched this game three times, the third with a painfully focused eye on the defense. If asked to rank the most concerning aspect of the Denver Broncos heading into Week 11, my answer would be put forth in one word.

Defense.

So let’s get to it.

The Negative
I could invite you over for a seat on the couch, we’d fire up the DVR, and we could pull a thesis of negative commentary from film review on this game (and we will in a few moments)… but the numbers say it all.

Through the first six games of the season the Broncos surrendered an average of 11 points per game, holding teams to just 262.5 total yards per game. The crew allowed just 79.7 yards per game (3.33 yards per carry) on the ground and lowly 5.43 yards per pass attempt through the air. By the end of the six-week stretch the Broncos had taken 12 turnovers from the opposition, relinquishing just five of their own.

In the three games since the Broncos have surrendered an average of 28.3 points per game, giving up 351.7 total yards of offense per game. The passing yards per game remained low (194.3 yards per, versus 182.8 in the six games prior) but the ball is heading down the field more often, giving up 7.2 yards per attempt. The true failures came in defending the run, giving up 157.3 yards per game (4.7 yards per carry). It is a brutal way to fall as the constant grind of defending the run can be much more damaging to the strength and spirits of a defense.

To top it off the three-game slide, the Broncos seized two turnovers working against the opposition only to give up six of their own. They entered the three-week stretch from hell with a +7 turnover ratio. Today, after the three losses, they stand at +3.

When the defense is holding the opposition to 11 points per game while creating a sizeable advantage in turnovers, any team can overcome a stifled offense. When that numbers jumps to 30 and the tide turns on those turnovers… not so much.

The Truth
It is rare that I find value in local sports radio (rare… not impossible), but on my commute home on Monday evening I enjoyed some rather insightful offerings from Alfred Williams, former defensive lineman (and occasional linebacker) for the Denver Broncos (1996 through 1999). Alfred now offers his thoughts on the airwaves, working afternoons for 104.3FM The Fan here in the Mile High City… and when Alfred talks defense, it’s a good idea to listen. On Monday I did just that and found his guidance to be revealing.

Williams spoke at length about the woes we noted above, and his estimation puts blame on the defensive line. “This is assignment football and that never changes. You have assignments and, in that defense, you don’t get Ladell Betts averaging over four yards per carry… You can see it in the linebackers. It may be the linemen have gotten too comfortable. They are taking chances and blowing off assignments. They aren’t listening to the coaches because they think they can make the play on their own, and they can’t.”

Turn to the video and it is undeniable. On multiple occasions you will find D.J. and Andra out of position. They appear to missing their spots and out of sync on multiple occasions, often switching direction and moving as if surprised by the action unfolding before them. As Alfred notes, those guys don’t miss their spots. They are forced out of position by an unknown change made at the expected point of attack (thus the high number of tackles for safety Brian Dawkins, often coming in relief), and that blame falls squarely on the defensive line.

We entered the season pointing to this line as the source of overwhelming concern. After six weeks we were listing them as the overwhelming surprise.

It took just three weeks to ruin that, and now the Broncos have one week to get it back.

And with this we look forward to find Norv Turner and his rising San Diego Chargers dead ahead. Last season the Bolts earned rank as the lone team in NFL history to amass eight losses in their first 12 games only to qualify for the postseason. They have earned three consecutive AFC West titles. They come to Denver touting four consecutive wins.

The illustrious Bill Williamson from ESPN notes, in review of the current situation, “We never thought we’d see it happen again. Or, at least, not so soon. But the Rocky Mountain meltdown watch is officially on again.”

I will offer my own note of reflection in rebuttal. Only the passing of time can reveal what the future holds…

… I would much rather struggle in Weeks 8, 9, and 10 than Weeks 14, 15, and 16.

Thanks for stopping in.