Mike Honcho

I went to bed at 4am. I woke at 7:30.

You’ve been warned… I’m in a mood. I’m loopy. I’d suggest I’m in my element, but you may disagree. If you are like the better half you are annoyed to no end and have taken to hiding. I’m running on fumes with one sick kid, one workin’ on cabin fever two days into her Thanksgiving break, two dogs with the combined intelligence of an aluminum can, and my lack of focus has done nothing to help.

I like to refer to this alter ego as Mike Honcho… anything could happen and it’s likely to amuse and, on some level, embarrass.

So here is the plan. I’m going to step into the garage, I’m going to down a pot of coffee, and I’m going to make an attempt to walk through today’s matchup while working to regain my composure.  As I type we are about two hours from morning kickoff (with hopes of wrapping during that first quarter of the morning madness) and that early slate fails to intrigue (Indy/Baltimore is as good as it gets), so I’m going to work through this morning’s haze without distraction and I’ll invite you to join me.

Here is how I start this, and every, day. Enjoy at your own risk.

(Keep in mind they walked off with a Grammy this year.)

Ok… in an attempt to avoid replication while sharpening my perspective, I paid a visit to our Week 6 preview when the Donkeys traveled left in the first ‘09 battle for AFC West dominance, and at that time we put forth the following.

Three Bullets for the Glass-is-Half-Empty Crowd

1) Philip Rivers runs his mouth, and he backs it up.
2) The Bolts know how to create turnovers.
3) Darren Sproles may be the best back the Broncos have faced thus far.

Three Bullets for the Glass-is-Half-Full Crowd

1) Run, Run, Pass… repeat.
2) Norv Turner is the coach in San Diego.
3) The Bolts one dimension plays into Denver’s strength.

While the analysis proved somewhat insightful at the time (with the Broncos walking away victorious, 34-23) it certainly didn’t unfold as expected. The Bolts were as one-dimensional as hoped (73 total rushing yards as a team, versus 238 through the air), Turner was as mental challenged as hoped (this will never change), but special teams were the force of the day. The Royal Treatment gave us four tacos for a buck, earning rank as the 11th player in NFL history to post both a kickoff return and a punt return for touchdowns in the same game, Sproles added a 77-yards punt return touchdown of his own, and the quarterbacks battled with Kyle Orton prevailing despite a strong effort from Rivers (going 20-of-33 for 274 yards and one touchdown). Turner refused to push a worthy rush attack – Tomlinson found just 70 yards on 18 carries while Sproles, the man we feared at the time, earned just one carry – and Denver defense managed to slow Vincent Jackson (four catches for 46 yards with one score) and Antonio Gates (five catches, 70 yards) just enough to keep things honest.

Looking back, it was the first warning shot over the Mile High bow. There were only eight total penalties in the game (four on each side), there was only one combined turnover (a fumble by Rivers), the Denver defense surrendered 20+ points for the first time this season (having relinquished 27 or more in every game since), and Denver found Orton working as their only viable source of progress on offense.

Denver may have earned the win but it now stands as a definitive moment when the Mile High tide turned.

It would appear the tide has turned for San Diego as well. Consider this…

- The Chargers pulled a record of 2-3 over those first five games, averaging 24.8 points per game while surrendering 34.2 points per game along the way. They have gone 4-0 since, averaging 28.3 points per game while relinquishing just 16.5 to the opposition.

- They may be one dimensional but the lack of variety on offense has yet to slow Rivers. He ranks seventh among professional passers in terms of QB rating (97.9) while his turnover ratio (16 touchdowns versus six interceptions) is one of the best marks in the land… all earned with a lackluster level of support from the rushers and the offensive line.

- While we could debate the power of their offerings on defense (ranked 20th in the NFL, surrendering 22.4 point per game), only seven teams have earned more sacks (24). If you struggle to protect the quarterback (and it might be fair to suggest the Broncos are struggling on the offensive line), the Chargers can take advantage.

Of course, there is a flip side to that coin.

- While the Chargers still enjoy a +2 give/take ratio on the season, they no longer stand as a league leader in creating turnovers. They own just 13 total takeaways (well behind AFC leaders such as Buffalo with 19 or New England, Indy, and Houston with 17 each… their numbers are dramatically helped by their rushers as the Bolts have yet to post a single fumble lost on the season), touting that same number (+2) in the give/take column over their current four-game win streak.

- The Chargers still rank as the NFL’s worst rushing offense in the league, averaging 3.2 yards per carry and 75.1 rushing yards per game. They own just three runs of 20 or more yards and have yet to post a run over 40 (a feat matched only by the Chiefs and Cardinals).

- The four wins earned since the Week 6 loss to Denver have come against Kansas City, Oakland, the New York Giants, and Philly… touting a combined record of 14-23.

Other statistical notes of interest…

- Only five teams have suffered a worse disadvantage in terms of time of possession (St. Louis, Tennessee, Oakland, Buffalo, Cleveland… not exactly good company).

- San Diego has yet to enjoy an individual 100-yard rushing performance. Meanwhile Denver has surrendered 157 rushing yards per game in their three losses since they last faced San Diego.

- Six of the last seven matchups between the Chargers and Broncos have hit the OVER (and only one of those six has been close, the 41-3 win by SD in 2007 with the O/U set at 43.0).

Maybe our original bullets aren’t as damaged as we thought. The Chargers still lack in thorough offerings on offense and it would seem they are likely to struggle in efforts to continue the surge in rushing that has plagued the Denver defense over recent weeks. Norv Turner is still at the helm and his influence has insured the Chargers, while successful, will struggle to optimize opportunity (especially on defense). The Denver offense could find hope via the run and the numbers posted in last week’s loss to Washington suggest the Broncos’ offense could be turning in such a direction… as long as they are capable of providing a viable threat in passing the football.

Thus we sit in review of our old analysis, we consider the events that have come to fruition since, and we pause to search for the one headline we need to make some form of objective conclusion… and I just threw up in my own mouth.

Michael David Smith from ProFootballTalk.com came in just eight minutes ago to send along the latest from Chris Mortensen with ESPN, reporting Chris Simms will be earning today’s starting honors behind center for Denver while Orton rests in damaged ankle, and while we are surprised to find Orton will stand as the secondary option at the position (suggesting his ankle could be pushed if necessary), the attempts to find clarity through the haze are ruined.

And I’m back to being Mike Honcho…

… and I’m going to pray.

All bets are off. All of the analysis above… useless. You cannot accommodate for this turn of events. I feel objective in asserting last week’s performance left us with nothing of worth to review in Chris Simms. I feel objective in asserting nearly three years have passed since we witnessed a performance worthy of analysis from Chris Simms. I would love to launch into a rant on Josh’s decision to move forward with this depth chart… more than a few in the media universe have put the spotlight on Orton’s struggles for durability while in Chicago this week. It would be fair to question how we reached this point with Simms working as the only viable option of resource available if/when Orton would tumble. We put that on Josh (we’ve put all of the recent struggles on Josh, and this turn of fate is no exception).

That won’t do us any good today, and as such we revise our bullets as such.

Three Bullets for the Glass-is-Half-Empty Crowd

1) The Broncos are not likely to find success in an offensive throwdown.

2) A tired and worn Denver defense is likely to be asked to answer the call as the catalyst for hope, and recent events suggest this is an avenue to failure.

3) The most promising advantage owned by the Broncos – pitting Josh McDaniels against Norv Turner – could be ruined by the lack of stability Denver will present on the field.

Three Bullets for the Glass-is-Half-Full Crowd

1) The Broncos possess the commodities needed to expose a piss-poor San Diego defense, in more ways than one, and the arrival of Simms behind center should brings these commodities to the floor.

2) Both teams are atrocious in coverage on special teams where San Diego could open the door for much-needed Denver gains.

3) Norv Turner is still the coach in San Diego, and as such anything is possible.

In other words…

- The Broncos need to run the football.

- The Broncos can relinquish the sell-out defensive effort against Rivers as long as they work in limiting the big play, in controlling the clock (and, with luck, letting the defense get some semblence of rest), and in slowing the tempo of this game.

- The Broncos need to turn San Diego’s desire to rush the passer into a gift, and they can do so by lulling Norv Turner and his coaching crew into a false sense of comfort… and I believe this is the key to the game.

If the San Diego crew has proven anything this season it is their inability to adjust to the events at hand and to seize an opportunity presented. 

Twice they have struggled to put Oakland, another team with woes behind center, to bed (wining those two games by a combined 12 points). They let Baltimore take a small lead in the 2nd quarter and failed to adjust to their own misgivings in the loss to Baltimore. It took a late-game surge from Rivers to put Miami in the loss column (a game that stood at 10-6 in San Diego’s favor after three quarters). Another 21-point push built by the arm of Rivers in the fourth quarter averted an absolute trouncing at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers (and they still lost, 28-38). Rivers needed an 80-yard drive with 21 seconds left to play to pull the one-point victory from the jaws of defeat over the Giants. And the Bolts tried like hell to give the Eagles last week’s win, surrendering 14 points in the final quarter as Donovan McNabb exposed what is supposed to be San Diego’s strength on defense as a fraud (hitting ‘em for 450 yards and two touchdowns). That game was sitting at 28-23 Chargers with seven minutes left in the game.

It’s a one-man show in every sense of the expression (and no, I’m not ready to take Tomlinson’s lone surge last week and build it into a wave of change for the San Diego offense… as expresssed during their first matchup, there is no cure for old… right, Woody?), and while you may not appreciate the bend-but-don’t-break defensive scheme against him, it would work.

If, by some miracle, Chris Simms can avoid costly error… if Denver can focus their efforts on the talents working out of the offensive backfield that would put the battle for time of possession, while putting the hurt to the Bolts’ defensive weakness, in their favor… if Mitch Berger doesn’t ruin it all… if Josh McDaniels and the Denver Broncos can play smart, I am confident Norv Turner and the San Diego Chargers will not.

I’m dog-ass tired, I’m mentally drained, I’m Mike Honcho… and I’ll spread my butt cheeks for Josh and take the Broncos, 23-20.

Enjoy, and as always, thanks for stopping in.

Tags: Denver Broncos, San Diego Chargers, Week 11