The Honey Do List

It is going to rule my life this afternoon, and while it’s all for the magnificent cause of my favorite holiday…

… we are always a few moments away from total chaos and mayhem.

As such, I’m going to be quick with it (and to be honest, I’m starting to wonder if most of you wouldn’t prefer it that way… in case you missed it, I tend to be long winded and that can both entertain and annoy). We are skipping the links – it’s a short week anyway – and the buffets – just cut to the chase and spend time on Bill Williamson’s blog at ESPN, at Deadspin, at ProFootballTalk, and of course on the mothership – and we will jump right into the preview of tonight’s matchup.

If you read my back-and-foth with Mike Farley, the Giants correspondent with the Fanball Sports Network (GmenDen.com), you know I am struggling to find reason for hope. I would expect, unlike Nugget fans, the bulk of Bronco Nation is ok with this assessment. If the truth were told I do own a ton of faith for the future… I just don’t see it coming to fruition this week.

Let’s run through the bullets.

Three Bullets for the Glass-is-Half-Empty-Crowd

1) The Broncos giveth, they do not taketh away.
We reviewed the numbers following the frustrating experience that was last week’s loss to San Diego… the Broncos now stand with a -7 give/take over this four-game losing streak after carding a +7 rating over the six-game win streak. The defense is struggling to create turnovers while the offense is struggling to avoid ‘em… and that’s a problem.

2) The Giants may carry the best receiving corps the Broncos have seen thus far.
There isn’t a household name to be found on the roster but the Giants have a full array of weapons that has the Giants working as the 8th-best passing offense in the league. Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Domenik Hixon, Hakeem Nicks (if healthy), and one of the most alluring fantasy commodities on the rise at tight end in Kevin Boss… the Giants can do it all. They can beat you deep, they can hurt you over the middle, they can earn yards after the catch, they can work in traffic. This may be the best test the Broncos’ defensive backfield has seen this season.

3) The Broncos seem unwilling to bend.
The offense is stale, at best. They have found positive gains in running the football but they dedicate no sense of focus to this portion of their offense. Josh wants to pass and he believes in the system, but the system has yet to change while injuries and the opposition have all but demanded it should.

Knowshon Moreno’s attempt counts over the first six games (in order): 8, 17, 21, 14, 21, 18. Over the last four: 10, 5, 18, 10. The kid averages 4.2 yards per carry and no one is rushing to get him on the fantasy roster… and who can blame ‘em? He doesn’t get the football.

With the Giants giving up 4.3 yards per carry, with the Broncos persistently failing in the battle for time of possession, with an overwhelming desire to keep those Big Apple receivers and their leader off the field, you would hope that would change.

But we’ve been saying that for four weeks.

Three Bullets for the Glass-is-Half-Full Crowd

1) The Broncos’ defensive prowess has been “masked” by recent results.
The score entering the 4th quarter in the loss to Baltimore: Broncos 7, Ravens 16. The final score: Broncos 7, Ravens 30.

The score entering the 4th quarter in the loss to Pittsburgh: Broncos 10, Steelers 14. The final score: Broncos 10, Steelers 28.

The score entering the 4th quarter in the loss to Washington: Broncos 17, Skins 14. The final score: Broncos 17, Skins 27.

It got out of hand a bit sooner against San Diego, but not much. The score halfway through the 3rd quarter in the loss to San Diego: Broncos 3, Chargers 13. The final score: Broncos 3, Chargers 32.

(You can only ask so much Josh… and you need to help ‘em out.)

2) The Giants are struggling to run the football.
The Giants were as deep at running back as any team in the league last season, so much so they let Derrick Ward bound off to Florida. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw were tabbed as the power to Eli Manning’s lightning in this offense, but they have yet to put the action behind the words.

Jacobs has yet to post a single 100-yard performance and touts just three touchdowns on the season (an insane proposition after carding 15 last season). Bradshaw has been more productive in fewer carries – averaging 4.8 per with four touchdowns on the season – but he has been ruled out with a bum ankle.

Review the recent mashes for the Broncos and it’s hard to deny the rush defense hasn’t been an issue, giving up 84 clicks and a touchdown to Ray Rice, followed by 155 for Rashard Mendenhall, followed by an improbable 114 and a touchdown for Ladell Betts, followed by a 203-yard team effort by the San Diego crew.

It would seem the Giants might struggle to keep that trend alive.

3) The New York defense may be a much-needed break.
The loss of linebacker Antonio Pierce could prove to be one of the more damaging injuries in the league this season. He is underrated as the leader of a crew that tends to fall in the shadows of one of the NFL’s best defensive lines. With Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora patrolling the line of scrimmage most fail to recognize the work Pierce puts in  to keep the crew behind them productive, and without his services the Giants are asking a strong-yet-questionable group to fill those shoes.

Michael Boley has found his best work in getting after the passer and is not known as a premier man against the run or in space. Danny Clark is a proven vet but at 32-years of age he is relegated to time share with unknown Clint Sintim. Chase Blackburn steps in to fill for the vacancy left by Pierce, and while he has enjoyed surges of production (11 tackles, eight solo against New Orleans), he is struggling to serve as main man at the point.

That is a group that would play well into Josh’s desire to emphasize shorter, controlled passing routes that relying on timing and yards after the catch. It would be an ideal scenario for Brandon and Eddie to serve as soldiers of fortune… if the quarterback can get the job done.

I must admit more than a few of my friends and cohorts suggested my score prediction in the email string with Farley – suggesting the Broncos would lose by 24 (34-10) – may resemble too much respect for the Giants. This team has lost four of their last five and they needed a bit of help to get a win at home over the Falcons last week… and to those folks I want to ask three (we always work in groups of three) questions.

Did you believe the Washington offense was good enough to score 27 on the Denver Broncos?

Would you suggest the Broncos offense can, in any way, compare to the same offerings put forth by Atlanta?

Did you think Josh could be so aggravatingly stubborn in his formulation of a game plan?

And I would submit the following answers to those questions in support of my own prediction.

- If you are going to tell me you thought the Washington Redskins could I’m calling BS. They scored NINE against the St. Louis Rams, 14 against Detroit, 16 against Tampa, 17 against Carolina, and six – THAT’S TWO FIELD GOALS – against Kansas City. Last week they capped it all with six against Dallas. There isn’t a single defense in that group worthy of rank among the league’s best, and for most fans in the Mile High the defense would be the obvious symbols of hope… and the Skins hit them for 27, their best single-game performance of the season.

If the Skins can score 27, the Giants will go over 30.

- We can put the comparison of Matty Ryan and Kyle Orton to rest. I don’t want to hear about records and numbers… Ryan is in a different category, and I’m ready to discount any and all who suggest otherwise. Trust me… Josh would adore Ryan, as would Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. It’s not a debate.

I’m not sure the Broncos run the ball enough to suggest a comparison with Atlanta is viable… the stats show a surprisingly small difference in rush attempts (280 for the ATL, 257 for Denver) but Michael Turner – the catalyst for all things positive on the ground in the dirty south – can be found amongst the best in the league in numerous stat categories (9th in carries, 8th in yards, 3rd in touchdowns) and you won’t find Knowshon or Bucky in spitting distance of that crew.

The wide receivers are the only point of viable comparison between the Denver offense and the ATL group that pushed the Giants for the win… and we don’t know if Denver has the arm to put those gifts on display.

- The Stable has been banking on a change in offensive direction in predicting Denver victories in each of the last four weeks, and we are done. It seems, based on recent examples, the management tasked with the construction of this offense is either unwilling or, worse yet, incapable of adapting to the scenario at hand. When your quarterback – already marked as marginal in strength and accuracy – suffers injury… when your offensive line – a source of constant change and disappointment- falters in protection of that quarterback… when the opposition all but begs for your offense to run the football, it would seem wise to put your weapons to use and take what is being given.

This is what Norv Turner and the Chargers managed to do last week. Jim Zorn and the Skins did it the week before… and I’m sorry, but as one of the most loyal voices of support for Josh McDaniels in this town, I cannot live with the thought that those two men outcoached, outschemed, and outshined our man.

And thus I’m sticking with my prediction… Giants 34, Denver 10.

I hope I am wrong.

Thanks for stopping in.

Tags: Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Thanksgiving, Week 12