Wild Horses

Let’s not waste time with nuance or unnecessary delay.

This is, for all intents and purposes, the best team the Broncos have faced this season and could easily rank among the best teams they have ever seen in franchise history. The Colts are undefeated and have laid quality teams to waste in getting there: Miami, Arizona, Tennessee (twice), New England, and Baltimore.

Indy is the best team the Broncos have seen this season… and Indy should be saying the same about the Denver Broncos.

Three Bullets for the Glass-is-Half-Empty-Crowd

1) The Colts’ rushing offense is improving.
Coming from a distance we could look at the overall numbers for the Indianapolis rushers and suggest the team is incapable of putting yards on the ground. Joseph Addai has just 181 carries on the season, has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry with ‘em, and has lost opportunity to rookie Donald Brown.

However, Brown has been damaged with injury of late and that has given Addai an opportunity to improve. He owns at least one touchdown in four of his last five games and has enjoyed a mild-yet-noteworthy rise both in carries (19 or more versus the Rams, Niners, Ravens, and Titans) and yards (74 against Baltimore, 69 at Houston, 79 against Tennessee last week).

This team has been getting it done with passing and passing alone for much of the season and this is an approach the Broncos are armed and waiting for… but bring in an element of ability from the rushing game and you have the ingrediants to put the Broncos in trouble.

2) Few teams can get after the quarterback like the Indianapolis Colts.
It will be said so much today that you will think it cliche, but the power of the Colts’ defense lies right up front. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are two of the best in the league at getting to and pulling down the pass. Freeney boasts 10.5 sacks on the season (one of few giving chase to Denver’s own Elvis Dumervil) while Mathis owns 9.5 of his own.

To be fair, Mathis is listed as questionable for this week’s matchup with a bad quad and that could be a blessing for the Broncos if he were to sit out, but as we noted in watching Tamba Hali last week, there are vulnerable days for the Denver Broncos offensive line (a line made weaker by the recent loss of Ryan Harris). Ryan Clady found immense struggles in keeping Hali out of the backfield last week and that was in the midst of a Denver blowout. This week the pressure will be that much greater and Freeney will be putting that much more on his shoulders should Mathis be deemed unable to contribute.

And we’ve seen what pressure can do to the Denver quarterback in the past…

3) If there is a glaring weakness for the Denver defense it is their work against the no-huddle offense… and no player enjoys more work without a huddle than Peyton Manning.
Talk about cliché… I’m going to suggest Peyton Manning is the most concerning aspect of today’s game for the Denver Broncos. I’m really going out on a limb. Taking big chances. Who knows what I’ll say next? “Oh look, the sun is rising,” or, “Ham sandwiches are good,” or “Tiger is a sex addict.” These are brilliant observations you can’t find elsewhere my friends…

You can look up any game from this season touting highlights from the Colts and Manning will dominate the footage. He’s amazing. He qualifies the Denver defensive numbers, a regular source of inspiration for this year’s Mile High faithful, as useless. The Broncos have not seen a quarterback like Peyton Manning this season or in any other and you can bet he is the one player that can identify any problems in the Denver D and exploit them.

It’s cliché for a reason… because it’s true. When you play the Colts you either stop Peyton Manning or you don’t. No one has stopped him yet.

Three Bullets for the Glass-is-Half-Full Crowd

1) When Michael Irvin went looking for the receiver to talk to about this game, he went to Brandon Marshall.
Some might debate the validity of the source and others might be quick to question the choice, but as influential as Manning has been for the Colts, Brandon Marshall has been for the Broncos.

Understand the Broncos spread the wealth. In their eight wins this season the Broncos have seen five different leading receivers. Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley, Tony Scheffler… all earn targets and all have combined to formulate one of the more underrated receiving corps in the league.

Marshall runs the show. Over the last five weeks he has solidified his place as the team’s catalyst for yardage. Eleven catches for 112 yards against Pittsburgh got it going. Seven catches for 94 capped it against Kansas City last week. You can include the three-for-26 fart laid against San Diego and the numbers still impress: 6.4 receptions, 90.4 yards, 14.1 yards per catch (Marshall’s averages over the last five games).

Against Indy he could find continued success as the Colts have struggled in recent weeks with injury. Corner Aaron Francisco is out, fellow corners Melvin Bullitt, Tim Jennings, and standout Kelvin Hayden are all listed as probable but are also nursing injury. The Colts haven’t been especially strong against the pass this season as it is (ranked 19th in the league in terms of passing yards surrendered per game) and the woes to stay healthy could put Marshall right back in the spotlight this week.

2) The Colts are damaged.
Not only are the Colts damaged, but they are damaged in a ways that could benefit the Denver Broncos.

Rookie rusher Donald Brown is out, giving the Colts a limited sense of option in rushing the football (an area where Denver might allow them to excel).

Receiver Anthony Gonzalez is out, giving the Colts a questionable set of secondary options behind Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark to utilize (a group that has yet to face a defensive offering as stout as Denver’s).

Defensive end Robert Mathis is questionable, leaving the Colts with one less power to tempt Kyle Orton into mistake.

However, the most promising injury listings come from Indy’s offensive line. Tackles Ryan Dien, Charlie Johnson, and Tony Ugoh are all listed as questionable commodities with various injuries while guard Jamey Richard and center Kyle DeVan are probable but are also damaged. Every name on that list but DeVan represents a commodity of benefit and force for the Colts. Those are names that have kept Manning alive and well this season, absorbing just 10 sacks on the season. This presents Elvis Dumervil, Andra Davis, and D.J. Williams with a window of opportunity that could, ultimately, present the most allurin avenue to success for the Denver Broncos.

If the Colts fail to find an answer for those three players (and the injury list suggests they will), Manning could suffer through his most frustrating Sunday this season.

3) Denver appears to be the premium matchup for this Indianapolis squad.
The Colts rank 18th in the NFL in rushing defense, surrendering 111.7 yards per game on the ground with eight rushing touchdowns surrendered. However, delve deeper into the numbers and you find a bit of concern.

The Colts have allowed just three rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Colts have allowed just one rushing play of 40+ yards. The Colts are allowing a respectable 22.1% of first-down conversions against the run (ranked 15th in the NFL).

In other words, Indy may give up the yards on the ground but you have to be dedicated to getting them. They do not surrender big gains, they do not allow you to run downhill without opposition, but they will allow you to break off chunks of the field as they focus on the pass rush. From what we witnessed against the Chiefs last week (one of the few tangible lessons we gained from an otherwise pathetic experience), the Broncos are capable of doing this on offense. As noted, that’s a damaged and vulnerable secondary teamed with front line known for surrendering quality rushing gains… and that may represent the most inviting defensive scenario Josh McDaniels and company have gameplanned this season.

Turn it the other way.

The Broncos are known for putting the clamps on the passing game. We’ve already noted Manning as the best player on the field and the Colts make no qualms in their interest in passing. As luck would have it, the Broncos could represent the best pass defense he has seen this season…

… and to be honest, we’ve seen evidence to suggest that Manning can get his yards while the Colts will struggle to take advantage.

Week 2, beating Miami 27-23: Manning goes for 303 yards but the Fins run for 239, taking 49 carries for 4.9 yards per. Manning needed a late touchdown pass to Pierre Garcon to seal the deal.

Week 8, beating San Francisco 18-14: Manning goes for 347 yards but the Niners take 18 carries for 6.3 yards per to keep the game close. One Reggie Wayne touchdown pass proves to be the difference despite earning two turnovers on defense.

Week 9, beating Houston 20-17: Manning gos for 318 yards in a game loaded with turnovers (three for Houston, two for Indy). Manning throws two picks and keeps Houston in the game despite a lowly 3.1 yards-per-carry average for a troubled Houston rushing corps.

Week 10, beating New England 35-34: Manning goes for 327 as the Colts let Tom Brady, Kevin Faulk, and Laurence Maroney put in work. The Pats put up 477 total yards of offense but give up a whopping four passing touchdowns to Manning. They are exposed for their lackluster corners, they fail to take advantage of two interceptions against him, and they let their coach make the most questionable call in recent NFL history.

Week 11, beating Baltimore 17-15: Manning goes for 299 but throws two interceptions. The Colts struggle to limit the Baltimore defense, Manning’s mistakes keep the game close, and kicker Matt Stover saves the day.

Those games serve as our inspiration for picking the Denver Broncos to hand the Indianapolis Colts their first loss of the season. Three noteworthy threads run through all of those close Indy wins…

- The Indy defense gives up too much to give Peyton Manning comfort.

- Peyton Manning has, when pressed, made mistakes and surrended opportunity to the opposition (seven interceptions over his last five games).

- Teams have struggled to limit Peyton Manning in the end.

If the Broncos can keep the defense (especially the elder statesmen in the defensive backfield) fresh by a concentrated effort to run the football, if they can take full advantage of the mismatch Indy will be unable to avoid in addressing Brandon Marshall, and if the Broncos can limit their own mistakes while capitalizing on those made by the Colts… they win.

Broncos 24, Colts 23

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Tags: Denver Broncos, Game Preview, Indianapolis Colts, Week 14