With the 10th Pick…

(As has become the norm, I’m going to start with an apology… I haven’t been on in two weeks and I am neglecting the issues at hand for the Stable. I don’t want to use a ton of time now in explaining… suffice to say (a) I have not forgotten you, (b) I have every intention of making a strong effort to make it up to you all, and (c) I have been working… been puttin’ in work on a TON of stuff that has taken my focus from the Stable – including today’s subject addressed below. The goal is to keep the time away from the Stable as short as possible, and I start with a simple request for your forgiveness, patience, and understanding. And if you want, hit me up when you see me and I’ll make good and buy ya’ a beer or a hot dog… onward and upward.)

The time has come to address the Denver Broncos first-round draft pick in support of the 1st Annual Fanball Sports Network NFL Mock Draft. To provide a bit of background, we’ve pulled all of the NFL correspondents from the Network together to provide our own version of what may or may not happen in a few weeks when the 2010 NFL Draft comes down… each of our writers (including those that are turning their picks over to other teams, as the Bears will be doing per terms of the Jay Cutler trade) has come in to represent their respective teams in our virtual draft… and I’m on the clock.

I’ve spent a good portion of the last week pondering how I would approach the opportunity. To be honest I don’t feel the pick, in and of itself, means anything… we can sit and debate this player and that player to the ends of the earth my friends. It means nothing.

The true value of a mock draft would be the insights the experience might provide. We gain an opportunity to reflect on our squads and those that manage the team, and we will find numerous avenues to pursue in representing our crews. For some in this mock draft it is a chance to voice opinion, to make a case for the player we as individuals would desire.

I’m not down with that… to be frank, I don’t see the value and I certainly don’t feel it provides you, my loyal readers and the Mile High faithful, with anything of worth. I don’t work for the Broncos, Josh couldn’t give two shizzles what I think about this player or that player, and it would be honest to admit I have no insights into the true process the team will employ in making this decision.

I’ve decided the best use of this opportunity would be an educated, informed attempt to provide an objective opinion on what I feel Pat Bowlen, Brian Xanders, Josh McDaniels, and the rest of the scouting and coaching staff for the Broncos might do. Granted, it is an impossible task, and there is no true way to achieve that goal without personal reflection and motivation inserted into the process… but that’s my goal.

With this in mind I want to address the candidates I am rejecting for our selection here, along with simple thoughts on why I feel those players do not accurately represent a realistic view of what will be done with this pick. You can hit the blogosphere (as I have done) and collect opinions on team needs, areas of concern, players of interest, scouting reports, and potential options for this pick… they are all over the board and they are reached by a long and varied list of beliefs.

If we have learned anything from the Josh McDaniels experience thus far, it would be this: expect nothing. No one expected Jay Cutler to be wearing an orange and blue jersey without a horse on it today. No one anticipated (well… to be fair, Bill Williamson anticipated, and I tend to believe he had some help from insiders with the organization on that one) Knowshon Moreno would be the name read over the PA when Denver was out of time on the draft clock in the first round last year. No one (including Andy Reid) saw Brian Dawkins leaving Philly for Denver. No one anticipated a 6-0 start and no one expected the demise that followed.

Expect nothing.

Through my travels on the net I would put forth this list as the consensus catalog of candidates most feel would be worthy of consideration for Denver today.

Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
Each and every mock draft put forth by the experts at ESPN has listed that name under the heading of “Denver” in the 10th selection of this draft, and each time it is qualified with the same statement… “Assuming Brandon Marshall is shipped out of Denver.” Sorry, but I’m looking at the roster as we sit at this moment and Brandon Marshall is still cashing checks signed by Pat Bowlen.

Expect nothing.

More to the point I would ask what bullet points you see on Bryant’s resume that suggest he is worthy of consideration in this slot. McDaniels comes from a system and has employed a strategy that emphasizes intelligence, proven performance, and a concept of team. Bryant has displayed NONE of these… he was dismissed from his collegiate program for improper and illegal dealings with an agent (that’s not intelligent and it would certainly rate as selfish), he left a surging Oklahoma State program vying for a banner campaign in one of the most competitive leagues in college football without their best offensive weapon (that certainly fails in support of a team mentality), and he missed the vast majority of his final season in the collegiate ranks (proving nothing on the field of competitive play).

I’d also ask you to reflect on the draft choices spent on wide receivers by teams McDaniels has worked for in the past that would suggest a move to target Bryant in this draft would make sense. During his time with Bill Belichick the Patriots drafted several receivers, most notably Chad Jackson, P.K. Sam, and Bethel Johnson. How did those wagers work out? You could bring Deion Branch to the table if you like… he was a 2nd-round draft pick (and a late 2nd rounder at that) and was eventually shipped off after his rookie contract came to an end.

This team is not using the 10th pick to draft a wide receiver. Why any team with ties to reality would draft a receiver in the early rounds is beyond me.

HERE…

There’s a list of every receiver taken in the first two rounds of the draft from 2005 through 2009. How many of those guys would you trade for today? I count four, but I’ll go five if you want to be generous.

Earl Thomas, S, Texas or Taylor Mays, S, USC
The growing age of the secondary is of undeniable concern and there are many who suggest the Broncos need to address that situation sooner rather than later.

I suggest this:

- The Broncos added Alphonso Smith, Darcel McBath, David Bruton, and Tony Carter in last year’s draft (Carter was an undrafted rookie, eventually brought up from the practice squad)… they have addressed the need to look forward at this position.

- The age on the current roster in those positions is there because of Josh. Brian Dawkins, Renaldo Hill, Ty Law, Andre Goodman… ALL were added by McDaniels. Champ Bailey and Vernon Fox are the only backfielders on the roster that weren’t added by Josh (and they are both veterans with years on the books).

If the Broncos wanted to chase Taylor Mays I’d be all for it… but I’m finding it hard to believe they would do so with this pick. They might attempt to trade down (and they would have suitors… teams hesitate to jump into those top five spots but once they come off the board the trade talks get going) and compile, targeting Mays with a later pick where he is projected to fall. That would fit in line with draft school McDaniels comes from… but it wouldn’t fit with the 10th pick in this draft.

Since I’m not allowed by rules to trade down in this mock, I’m moving on.

Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
This is not a name I’ve seen mentioned in most Denver circles but there were suggestions on the RotoJunkie board that this should be considered. To that I point to a quote from Todd McShay from a recent article published on ESPN titled, “Most Common Draft Mistakes”…

3. They will pay no mind to minds. As one scout told me recently, “You can’t win with dumb players in the NFL anymore.” This Jeff George-inspired rule isn’t so much about human intelligence as football intelligence, not book-smart guys but playbook-smart guys… Here’s a good test for this season’s GMs. Watch where South Florida DE Jason Pierre-Paul goes in comparison to Georgia Tech DE Derrick Morgan. Pierre-Paul is a physical freak, and a team may get flak for passing him by to get to Morgan. But what that team will know is that Morgan is far more versatile and game aware than his counterpart, who hasn’t shown much more than pure pass-rushing ability.

We turn to Pierre-Paul’s scouting report and note the following bullet points:

Started career at College of the Canyons, transferred to Fort Scott Community College, still developing versus the run, struggles to generate leverage against the run, easily rooted off the line of scrimmage, still learning to use hands properly, will rely on athletic ability to compensate for missteps and bad angles, still developing instincts, struggles to sniff out stunts and screens.

In other words, he couldn’t make grades for those early years, he isn’t known for intelligence, he’s struggling to match his athletic gifts with his mental grasp of the game and he sucks against the run.

Josh prefers intelligence over athletic prowess (i.e. Kyle Orton over Jay Cutler), Denver is atrocious against the run (giving up 4.5 yards per carry, 128.7 rushing yards per game, ranked 26th in the NFL), and we have every reason to believe Elvis Dumervil will be getting a new deal coming off a record-setting campaign as the primary pass rusher.

No.

So… that leaves a few positions to debate. The team could be in search of a quarterback and that could put Sam Bradford in our conversation. The team could use an offensive-minded tight end and that could put Jermaine Gresham in the conversation. Watching tackle Anthony Davis fall could serve as a catalyst for debate, but if the Broncos are going to target an offensive lineman with the aim of achieving value capable an immediate impact, I see only one player on the board I would support.

Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
Based on what we have seen I believe it is fair to suggest McDaniels has a desire to turn the focus of the offense to the run. Ben Hamilton, once viewed as a supreme option at left guard, was demoted for his failures to provide adequate support for that effort… and he fits the stereotypical Mike Shanahan mold for offensive guards. He was lean and quick, without overwhelming power, unable to anchor at the point of attack. He failed in opening interior rushing lanes designed for Knowshon, he struggled to support center Casey Wiegmann in work against speedy bull rushers, he proved incapable of walling off would-be tacklers through the middle. He was then replaced by Russ Hochstein, signed away from New England in free agency by Josh, who also struggled to perform as desired before falling to injury. The offensive failures that followed the Broncos’ Week  7 bye flowed from those failures… and I believe the Broncos would, more than anything, wish to rectify those problems.

I’d also note the scenario at the position as a motivation for the pick. Eugene Amano ranked as the top option via free agency for the guard position and he signed a new multi-year contract with Tennessee a few days ago. The rest of the options available for consideration from the free agent market – David Baas, Daryn Colledge, Harvey Dahl, Evan Mathis, Stephen Neal, Chester Pitts, Deuce Lutui, Max Jean-Gilles – fail to inspire with two exceptions, those being Logan Mankins and Jahri Evans. It seems those two might only be obtained through a substantial offer and I tend to believe that price tag wouldn’t bring the Broncos to the table. Not that some of those players are viable options… but all indications suggest Iupati would possess the same skills and attributes any one of those players might bring, and the cost associated with the 10th pick in this draft would likely be at the same level (possibly lower) than the cost incurred for one of those free agents.

Add the complete and total lack of depth at this position in the draft – scouts believe we will only see three or four guards selected from this crop of rookies, none approaching the value presented by Iupati – and it seems wise to make the leap in this direction.

Iupati is a mauler, an absolute beast, and his skills translate both on the field and in film study. There are concerns about his durability due to shoulder injury suffered late in 2007 that required surgery, but the only other negative mark on the scouting report would be his lack of speed (the guy is 6-foot-5, 325 pounds… kind of hard to be quick at that size). He carries no discernable flaws in technique that can’t be improved by professional coaching, his coaches rave about his work ethic and mental grasp of the game, and he appears to be ready for a share of starting duties at the professional level.

I may be off the mark but, from this chair, Iupati fits just about every desire I believe the Broncos would bring to this year’s NFL Draft… and thus I’m going with him.

As always we welcome comment and criticism in the comment section below and you are always encouraged to send thoughts my way via email, Twitter, or Facebook… but I’d like to encourage you all to check out the entire mock draft and to take part in the growing conversation at RotoJunkie.com. We have our own thread working and the commentary thus far has been highly entertaining… it’s a wonderful community of fans we enjoy over there and I’d like to invite you all to become Junkies with us!

Thanks for stopping in.

Tags: Alphonso Smith, Ben Hamilton, Brandon Marshall, Brian Xander, Darcel McBath, David Bruton, Denver Broncos, Dez Bryant, Earl Thomas, Fanball Sports Network NFL Mock Draft, Jahri Evans, Jason Pierre-Paul, Josh McDaniels, Knowshon Moreno, Logan Mankins, Mike Iupati, NFL Draft, NFL Free Agency, Pat Bowlen, Russ Hochstein, Taylor Mays, Tony Carter