RB + 2007 = WR – 2010
March 11th, 2010 | by bpdouglass |I need to be quick with this as it is late and I’ve already written a ton this week (I’ll tackle shameless self promotion at the end), but I have a thought I want to get on the screen before it’s gone…
To catch up on news…
- The Broncos have been spending money on defense (Justin Brannan and Nathan Jones, Jarvis Green, and the most intriguing of them all, Jamal Williams) and kicking (Matt Prater reups). (All BroncoTalk)
- The jury is making it painful for the Mile High in the Darrent Williams trial. (Denver Post)
- The Broncos will be taking a look at a personal workout with Vladimir Ducasse. (ScoutNFLNetwork)
(Ed.Note: The kid has skills but I think the Broncos are intentionally pushing this news to the wire… conspiracy theorists unite. Brian and Josh are going offensive line early and they want folks thinking they are looking late.)
- Suddenly, Woody Paige likes everything the team is doing. (Denver Post)
- Kenny Peterson and Mitch Erickson are done. (MileHighReport)
(Ed.Note: Interesting… the Broncos are waiving a guard while dumping $5 million off the books. I wonder why they feel comfortable cutting ranks at that position, or why they would need to trim the fat considering Peterson, an eight-year vet off a strong season, seems to fit the new older-and-ready-to-win-now mold of recent moves to acquire players.)
- Based on what I’ve seen and what’s been done thus far, I ranked the Broncos among those listed in Part 1 of the Preliminary (that’s a nice way of saying way too early) Offensive Line Rankings at the mothership… that means, at best they are 17th and, at worst, they are 32nd. Tune in and find out (you won’t be happy). (Fanball)
- One man’s view (Frank Schwab) on the Brandon Marshall… situation. (Colorado Springs Gazette)
Ok… with that out of the way we can turn back to the business at hand.
I was pondering my own thoughts on Brandon (chronicled well on Twitter… Cliff Notes: he can stay or go and it will work, and I trust Pat, Brian, and Josh to get value should he sail) and I started to wonder… what is value?
Antwaan Randle El re-signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers for three years at $7 million.
Reggie Brown was trade by Philadephia to the Bucs for a sixth-round draft pick… next year.
Philadelphia re-signed Jason Avant for five years at $18 million.
Nate Burleson signed with Detroit for five years at $25 million.
(image Vincent Jackson)
The Chargers retained Vincent Jackson by tendering him at the 1st- and 3rd-round compensation level.
Terrell Owens can’t find a home.
One of the last teams looking at receivers, the Cincinnati Bengals, is turning to Antonio Bryant.
The only move of worth has been made the Baltimore Ravens, trading 3rd and 4th rounders this year (along with a new four-year, $28 million deal) for Boldin and a 5th. They’re hoping he has three years and they can settle him out on the fourth if necessary.
On the wide receiver market in the league’s first uncapped year in a long, long time… that’s it. The blockbuster deal has been a wideout approaching 30-years of age who was lapped by the kids on the rise in ‘Zona, and he fetched two mid-round draft picks because the Cardinals knew they had to pay him big dollars.
For most the conclusion is obvious… no one desperate enough to gamble on Marshall’s persona, resume, and arrest report is willing to pay twice. Give up the high pick AND pay the man, ’cause if Boldin gets $7 million a year… Brandon’s agent must be asking for at least$8.5, maybe even $9 or $10 million.
I think the headlines reveal more… to be fair, the cause for fiscal responsibility looms large, but more than anything, I believe the minds of the NFL no longer believe the top-dog wideout is a necessity.
I think they are the running backs of 2010, and you know who you can blame? Mike Shanahan.
Those of us that come from a fantasy background will tell you the single debate raging over the fantasy world’s relationship to the actual game is the evolution of the running back position. When I was a youth the league was dominated by feature rushers, guys that touted 75% to 80% of the team’s carries over the season. Over time the minds of the league started to ignore a rusher’s actual age, instead turning to their football age as measured in carries. Definitive marks in the number of carries (see LaDainian Tomlinson last season) over the course of a career are now accepted and considered in evaluating a rusher’s true “age”… and to combat that problem, the league (a) started to accept a system of multiple backs, and (b) began to incorporate the baseball mentality of “specializing” the position.
No one did this better than Mike Shanahan, and be was soon famed for his abilities to pluck low-round gambles at running back in the NFL Draft and evolve them into premium talents that would flash in their roles and in the Denver system… and when they moved on and the environment changed, they failed.
Fantasy football heads labeled this as the running-back-by-committee situation, NFL general managers and scouts started to lower their values in players at those positions, and today you will commonly hear this sentence associated with the position: “You can find rushers. Getting a rusher of worth isn’t difficult at all. Mike Shanahan pulls ‘em out of local car dealership to come in and run the ball. Not a problem.”
I wonder if the same isn’t happening now at wide receiver… consider the 2009 season.
The top 11 receivers in the NFL last season were, in order, Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Santonio Holmes, Steve Smith, Hines Ward, Vincent Jackson, and DeSean Jackson. There are four 1st rounders in that group, only one in the top half of the 1st (Andre was the 3rd-overall pick in 2003). Four more are 2nd rounders, two were selected in the third… and two were undrafted (Wes Welker, Miles Austin).
Seven of those receivers played in playoff games this year (two on the same team), only three moved past the first round, one played in the Super Bowl (and four other Colts were listed above Reggie Wayne in the box score’s receiving totals when the game was in the books).
It’s not a necessity… it’s not worth overpaying for… you can find quality options for less.
Maybe Pat, Brian, and Josh knew this when they tendered Brandon with on the 1st-round tag… maybe they realized they would either find the deal they (and all of you) would want or they would keep him at a one-year discount… maybe they work out a deal you don’t like but it still reflects that value (I’m starting to doubt it)… and maybe it’s all going to be ok.
Thanks for stopping in.
